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Gold drifts lower
Gold has begun its drift lower from $1320, after multiple attempts to break through this level. However, it is not yet an open goal for shorters, as we would need to see a drop through $1309.60 or a loss of the 200-hour moving average before the short-term view has shifted to a bearish disposition.
If we do see further losses then keep an eye on the 100-day moving average, currently around $1300, with a drop through here signaling a potential attempt to hit $1280 once more.
Silver's situation delicate
Although still fractionally overbought at the time of writing, silver’s situation looks precarious. Indeed, a drop through $20.80 would leave the metal open to rapid losses. We have now arguably formed a descending trendline from the February highs that will cap gains on the upside.
Only a close back above $21 would indicate that the metal is on track to recover $21.50 and then $22.
Brent supported by $112 level
Brent’s loss of the 200-hour MA has seen it steadily fall back in recent sessions, but on a daily chart the bulls might hope for some help around the 20-DMA.
This is a market that should see $112 as support, with $109.30 also being major support as the 50- and 100-week moving averages come into the equation.
An ability to hold above $112 would still signal that this market wants to retest $115, particularly if newsflow from Iraq turns more negative.
$105 level key for US light crude
NYMEX’s steady oscillation around a trendline continues, but on a weekly chart the picture is remarkably supportive of future gains, provided $105 can hold.
$105 really is the ‘line in the sand’ here, as a loss of this would imperil the uptrend for the first time since the beginning of the year.
A move higher would target $107, with a potential long-term target around $110, particularly if economic growth in the US experiences a bounce back from the dismal Q1GDP reading.