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Crude prices have been on the rise over the past fortnight, as fears over rising US output were overshadowed by the continued respect of planned production cuts throughout much of the OPEC/non-OPEC nations. However, from a technical point of view, there is reason to believe we could be seeing the market falter in its ascent, paving the way for a period of weakness.
Taking a look at the longer term picture, it is clear that the rally we have been seeing over the past 14 months looks like a retracement of the $62.56-27.58 descent. With that in mind, it is interesting to see the 76.4% being respected over recent months. This weekly chart highlights the rising wedge pattern being formed over the past year. This is typically bearish, thus pointing towards the eventual breakout coming to the downside. Crucially, while we have been creating higher highs over the past year, we have seen the price move into the region of trendline resistance.