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Levels to watch: gold, silver and crude

Gold has stalled around the 50-day moving average, while oil prices continue to edge back from their recent highs.

A man near oil barrels
Source: Bloomberg

Gold still retreating from $1300

The $1230 and the 50-DMA are conspiring together to prevent any further downside for the time being in gold, although the retreat from $1300 is still in effect.

Gains this week above $1240 have however been short-lived. This is most likely down to Greece (unsurprisingly), and with a Eurogroup meeting on the agenda today we are not likely to see any significant moves.

A break below the 50-DMA would target the $1200 area, which would coincide with a rising trendline off the November lows. With the stochastic momentum index heading into oversold levels a bounce may be in the offing, but upside gains are likely to be held back by the 200-DMA at $1250.

Silver targets $17.50

The near 10% drop in silver has run its course for now, with a rising trendline from the December lows providing support around $16.54. The price held above the 50-DMA earlier in the week, with a first target on the upside being the $17.50 area.

A fall through $16.50 would mark a loss of the aforementioned trendline, taking us back to the December lows around $15.50.

Brent unable to move above $58

The bounce in this commodity has failed to carry it past $58, and the daily relative strength index is now threatening to drop below the 10-DMA, potentially marking a change in trend. The 50-DMA could provide support, but a drop below here would target the third daily pivot support level around $54.50.

A full-blown retreat would mean the 2015 lows below $50 are back in play, with a failure to secure a Greek deal potentially sparking a risk-off mentality across markets that would not leave oil unaffected.

WTI testing $50 area

US light crude has failed to break the 50-DMA and is now testing the $50 zone. A break through here might find some transitory support around the 20-DMA at $48.30, but otherwise the January lows sub-$45 are the target.

A break above the 50-DMA would point towards gains in the direction of $55 and then the $58 zone. With the daily RSI having fallen back towards the 50 level and the stochastic index potentially about to give a bearish signal (when the momentum line crosses below the signal line), the rally may have run its course.

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