Amazon – trend remains strong

Despite some recent weakness, there isn't much to suggest a bearish outlook for Amazon stock.

It has been yet another bumper year for Amazon stock, with the price up 30% since 1 January, compared to 14% for the Nasdaq and 8% for the Dow Jones. There seems little to stop further gains, and from a technical and seasonality standpoint, the outlook remains encouraging. 

The all-time high in Amazon shares occurred on 6 June, and since then they have fallen back. However, the bulls defended the $945.46 level, which was support throughout June. It makes sense to expect further gains, although a deeper retracement to the longer-term trendline, which has held since February 2016, could provide a more attractive entry point. This would suggest a move back down towards $930.

Amazon chart

We should note Amazon’s seasonality, which is traditionally weaker in the July-August period. Over the past 19 years, the average return is 1% for July and 2.2% in August. So the shares may well continue their ascent, but the real performance will come later in the year.

Amazon return chart

Regardless of worries about the strength of the fundamental outlook, and potentially high valuations, the chart remains a bullish one, and there is no reason to think that one of the great stories of the past two decades is about to turn sour. 

Denna information har sammanställts av IG, ett handelsnamn för IG Markets Limited. Utöver friskrivningen nedan innehåller materialet på denna sida inte ett fastställande av våra handelspriser, eller ett erbjudande om en transaktion i ett finansiellt instrument. IG accepterar inget ansvar för eventuella åtgärder som görs eller inte görs baserat på detta material eller för de följder detta kan få. Inga garantier ges för riktigheten eller fullständigheten av denna information. Någon person som agerar på informationen gör det således på egen risk. Materialet tar inte hänsyn till specifika placeringsmål, ekonomiska situationer och behov av någon specifik person som får ta del av detta. Det har inte upprättats i enlighet med rättsliga krav som ställs för att främja oberoende investeringsanalyser utan skall betraktas som marknadsföringsmaterial.