Wall Street hits record highs while the oil storage clock ticks down on Iran

US equities hit record highs as Iran oil risks intensify

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 closed at fresh record highs on Friday as renewed optimism around artificial intelligence (AI) helped overshadow concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict. For the week, the Nasdaq 100 gained 2.37%, the S&P 500 added 0.55%, while the Dow Jones fell 216 points, or 0.44%.

The weekend delivered a fresh twist. United States (US) President Trump abruptly cancelled the planned envoy trip to Pakistan for peace talks, citing unnecessary costs and a disappointing offer from Tehran. He then delivered a blunt message: ‘If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us.’

This aggressive move puts the ball squarely back in Iran’s court, and the clock is now ticking loudly. Iran’s ageing onshore oil fields face a critical test, with storage facilities expected to hit maximum capacity this week. If forced shut‑ins follow, Tehran risks irreversible long‑term damage to its reservoirs and a serious hit to future production and revenue streams, as we highlighted in our previous update last week here.

In an interview on Fox News overnight, Trump drove the point home, warning that Iran is rapidly running out of time. He stated: ‘When you have lines of vast amounts of oil pouring through your system … what happens is that line explodes from within, both mechanically and in the earth … They say they only have about three days left before that happens.’

This realisation appears to have driven a fresh set of headlines this morning that Iran has offered to prioritise opening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the naval blockade before discussing nuclear negotiations. While this is certainly a positive development, and one that saw US equity futures rebound from early losses this morning, it is hard to see the US accepting anything less than a comprehensive deal that both opens the Strait of Hormuz and addresses Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Earnings season and Fed meeting take centre stage

Looking ahead beyond the Middle East drama, this week is the busiest of the first‑quarter (Q1) earnings season, with big technology names, including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta, all due to report. At this juncture, roughly 81% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates and 79% have topped revenue forecasts, both well above long‑term averages.

On the economic front, all eyes will be on Thursday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold as it digests the energy shock, with markets already looking ahead to Kevin Warsh taking over as chair in June.

Nasdaq 100 technical analysis

The Nasdaq 100 began a correction after hitting its late‑October record high of 26,182, before bottoming at the late‑March low of 22,841. At no point was the correction to the 22,841 low viewed as anything other than a healthy pullback following a strong rally from the Liberation Day lows.

The recent push to record highs has fulfilled the minimum upside objective, and the rally has now extended into overbought territory. This warns that a period of consolidation may not be far away, with the former double top at 26,200 - 26,100 viewed as near‑term support.

For those with a longer‑term horizon who are comfortable with periods of consolidation, there is no reason the current rally cannot mirror the powerful move seen after the Liberation Day lows and push on to 27,500 before potentially reaching 30,000 by year end.

Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart

Dow Jones technical analysis

In our Wall Street updates in March, we highlighted that the Dow Jones had formed a classic head‑and‑shoulders topping pattern from the 50,512 high. This played out as expected, with the index hitting our projected downside target of 46,500 in mid‑March before pushing lower to the late‑March low of 45,063.

The recovery since then has been solid. That said, the Dow remains the only major US index yet to reclaim record highs. Nonetheless, as long as it holds above short‑term support at 48,800 - 48,600 and, more importantly, the medium‑term zone around 47,000, which aligns with the 200‑day moving average, the correction likely bottomed at that late‑March low.

From here, a retest of the 50,512 all‑time high remains the most likely path higher, before a potential push towards 52,000.

Dow Jones daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 27 April 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}