Ceasefire extended – what comes next for US equities and crude oil?

US extends ceasefire as Iran’s leadership fractures

In a move that surprised absolutely no one, President Trump extended the United States (US) ceasefire with Iran this morning. The decision was announced roughly 24 hours before the original two‑week truce was due to expire on Wednesday evening, Washington time.

Delivering the update shortly after the US equity market closed, the President noted that Tehran’s government currently appears ‘seriously fractured’. This highlights a stark and growing divide between the diplomatic moderates attempting to navigate negotiations and the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The hardline hurdle: General Vahidi

At the centre of this hardline faction sits Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi. He was appointed Commander‑in‑Chief of the IRGC on 1 March 2026, following the death of his predecessor during the early stages of the current conflict. A veteran of the IRGC since the early days of the 1979 revolution, Vahidi rose through the ranks during the Iran‑Iraq War and served as the first commander of the elite Quds Force from 1988 to 1997.

His appointment has granted him substantial control over Iran’s military strategy, the Strait of Hormuz, and considerable influence over the country’s broader negotiating posture with the US. Crucially, he is also believed to be one of the few figures with direct access to the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

A calculated quagmire versus economic reality

Under Vahidi’s leadership, the IRGC would likely prefer to draw Washington into a costly boots‑on‑the‑ground conflict. This would substantially raise both the political and human stakes, rather than allowing the US administration to simply cut a deal, exit the arena and declare mission accomplished.

However, there is a powerful economic counterweight constraining the IRGC’s ability to prolong the standoff. President Trump made it clear that American forces will continue the naval blockade and ‘remain ready and able’ until Iran submits a unified proposal and talks reach a definitive conclusion.

Should the IRGC attempt to drag out negotiations in a bid to entangle the US in a prolonged quagmire, it carries severe physical risks for Iran’s mature onshore oil fields. With the blockade sharply limiting export capacity and onshore storage facilities rapidly approaching their limits, continued uncertainty significantly increases the risk of forced well shut‑ins.

Such outcomes could inflict long‑term damage on reservoirs, ultimately crippling the nation’s, and the IRGC’s, ability to survive, rebuild and retain power.

Market reaction and what comes next

For financial markets, the early extension has provided a welcome measure of short‑term relief. This dynamic has helped US equity futures rise 0.50% during the Asian session, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has slipped 0.86% to $89.44.

That said, an extension is far from a resolution. The delay risks deepening an already fragile global energy crunch, potentially driving oil prices higher and constraining the ability of US equity markets to extend recent gains.

The focus now turns squarely to whether Iran’s fractured leadership can bridge its internal divide and present a credible proposal, before patience on all sides wears thin and critical oil infrastructure suffers damage, possibly irreparably.

WTI crude oil technical analysis

At the beginning of March, WTI crude oil broke decisively out of its long‑standing $55 – $65 range, surging to a high of $119.48 on 9 March before retracing a significant portion of that move.

Somewhat worryingly, the correction that followed appears to have traced out a three‑wave ‘abc’ Elliott Wave pattern from the $119.48 peak down to last week’s $78.97 low.

While technical considerations will undoubtedly take a back seat to geopolitical developments, it remains important to keep the broader constructive technical backdrop in mind and to highlight several key levels.

If crude continues to hold support in the $79 – $76 region and then decisively reclaims resistance at $93.00 on a sustained basis, it would imply that a retest, and potential break, of the $119.48 high is underway.

A sustained break above $119.48 would then open the path for a test of the $130.50 high from March 2022.

WTI crude oil daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 22 April 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}