EUR/USD struggles while GBP/USD holds support and AUD/USD tiptoes higher

The euro continues to fall against the dollar, while the Aussie is finally rising, but for how long?

EUR/USD unable to rally

If you look up ‘false dawn’ in the dictionary, you will see a picture of the current hourly EUR/USD chart. The surge seen in the final two days of January promised a break higher, but strong rallies this week have been met with a wall of selling.

At present the price has continued to hold support at $1.10, but if it succeeds in stemming the downside for a fourth time in as many months it will be a remarkable achievement. Further losses target the late-September low at $1.0884. An early rebound this morning has run into selling at $1.101, continuing the downtrend of the past few days.

GBP/USD heads back to support

Upward progress in GBP/USD has been distinctly lacking too, as the rally yesterday turned sour.

However, the price continues to hold the $1.2976 level, as it has since mid-January, providing some hope of a possible rebound. Yesterday also saw support develop at $1.294, so this is another level to watch in the event of a move lower. A bigger decline heads towards $1.2773.

AUD/USD makes tentative rebound

The AUD/USD approached, but did not quite hit, support at $0.667.

A rebound has seen daily stochastics provide a bullish crossover, with the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) potentially following suit over the coming sessions. Whether this bounce has any further to run, then the one at the beginning of January remains to be seen. Intraday, dips may remain buying opportunities, but a more firmly bullish view requires a move back above $0.678, the peak from Wednesday and the 29 January lower high.


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