ASX 200 report:
26 May 2026

The Australia 200 trades 26 points (-0.30%) lower at 8665 as of 3.45pm AEST.

ASX 200 under pressure as US-Iran deal doubts lift oil prices

The ASX 200 is on track to snap a three‑day winning streak as investors hastily reassess the prospects of a US–Iran peace deal. The shift in sentiment follows reports this morning of explosions near Bandar Abbas – the critical gateway to the strait – and other southern coastal areas, where US fighter jets appear to have targeted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) speedboats.

These doubts have emerged just as markets were growing increasingly confident that a breakthrough was imminent, seemingly ignoring the fact that five previous attempts had fallen apart at the 11th hour. The renewed tensions sent West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures back above $92.00 after closing 6.91% lower overnight at $90.30.

Inflation remains elevated ahead of key RBA decision

Last month’s consumer price index (CPI) data delivered a notable jump, with headline inflation rising to 4.6% year‑on‑year in the 12 months to March 2026 – the highest reading since September 2023. Crucially for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), its preferred measure – the trimmed mean – held steady at 3.3%, still well above the bank’s 2% – 3% target band.

For tomorrow, the market expects headline inflation to ease to 4.4% year-on-year (YoY), with the trimmed mean likely to nudge higher to 3.4%. An outcome in line with these expectations, combined with last week’s softer labour force report, should give the RBA enough cover to keep interest rates on hold next month. 

ASX 200 stocks

Consumer discretionary sector

• ASX Limited dived 11.83% to $51.84. The exchange operator spooked investors by raising its capital expenditure forecast for the next financial year to $180 million – $200 million (up from $160 – $180 million), citing technology cost inflation and new product development linked to its modernisation program. It also flagged stronger expense growth, stoking fears of margin pressure in a high‑cost environment.
• Guzman y Gomez lost 2.77% to $19.30, trimming some of its recent gains after the company announced its full exit from the United States (US) market. The pullback comes as the group faces a class action lawsuit from former US workers, who allege they were terminated without the required 60 days’ written notice or proper severance pay under US labour laws.
• Going the other way, Kogan.com surged 19.04% to $4.09 following a robust May 2026 business update. The online retailer reported strong numbers for the first 10 months of financial year (FY) 2026, with gross sales rising 18.2% and revenue up 18.1%. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose 32%, alongside expanding margins, highlighting improving operating leverage.

Energy sector

Despite the bounce in crude oil, the energy sector lost ground today as coal miners surrendered a good chunk of the gains triggered by yesterday’s deadly explosion at a major Chinese coal mine.

• Yancoal fell 3.27% to $6.81
• Whitehaven Coal slipped 3.33% to $8.57
• Coronado Global Resources dropped 2.88% to $0.25
• Beach Energy fell 1.57% to $1.09
• Ampol shed 1.21% to $33.54.

Financials sector

The big four banks traded mixed ahead of tomorrow’s critical April inflation report.

• National Australia Bank fell 0.67% to $38.03
• Commonwealth Bank slipped 0.19% to $164.27 
• ANZ Banking Group lifted 0.18% to $35.83
• Westpac edged 0.03% higher to $36.78.

Information technology sector

Information technology (IT) stocks also struggled as Nasdaq futures gave back roughly 180 points (-0.63%) of their overnight gains on jitters over the trajectory of the US–Iran peace deal.

• Appen lost 2.60% to $1.13
• WiseTech Global fell 2.56% to $36.41
• Block eased 1.02% to $95.79.

ASX 200 technical analysis

From the mid‑April high of 9021.5, the ASX 200 has since lost 536 points (-5.9%) into last week’s 8485.2 low. The recovery from that low has the potential to extend back to resistance from the 200‑day moving average at 8798.

How the ASX 200 reacts to that resistance will depend on whether the most recently announced US–Iran peace deal is ‘signed off’ or fades away into obscurity like the previous five attempts.

ASX 200 daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 26 May 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}