BHP FY26 earnings preview

BHP overview 

BHP Group (ASX:BHP) is one of the world’s largest diversified resources companies, with major operations in iron ore (Western Australia), copper (Chile, South Australia and Peru), steelmaking and energy coal, and a growing potash business via the Jansen project in Canada.

Copper has become an increasingly important earnings driver as the company positions itself for long-term demand from electrification and artificial intelligence (AI)-related infrastructure.

When will BHP report its latest earnings?

BHP is scheduled to release its full-year (FY) results for the 12 months ended 30 June 2026 on Tuesday, 18 August 2026 before the market opens. 

The backdrop

In its half-year (HY26) results released in mid-February, BHP delivered a strong performance that highlighted the growing importance of copper to the portfolio.

Key figures from BHP’s HY26 results: 

• Revenue of US$27.9 billion, up 11%
• Underlying EBITDA of US$15.5 billion, up 25% (margin 58%)
• Underlying attributable profit of US$6.2 billion, up 22%
• Attributable profit of US$5.6 billion, up 28%
• Interim dividend of US$0.73 per share (fully franked), representing a 60% payout ratio

On the production front, iron ore volumes rose 2% to 134Mt, with Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) delivering a record first-half performance of 130Mt and record shipments. Copper production was broadly steady at 984kt, underpinned by solid output at Escondida (646kt) and a 2% lift at Copper South Australia.

The strong operational delivery allowed BHP to raise its full-year copper production guidance to 1.9 - 2.0Mt, and copper contributed more than half of group EBITDA for the first time (51%).

Then-chief executive officer (CEO) Mike Henry described the half as a milestone:

'This half marks a milestone for BHP with copper contributing the largest share of our overall earnings, at 51% of underlying EBITDA. BHP is the world's largest copper producer...'

The market responded positively to the earnings beat and higher-than-expected dividend, with the shares finishing 4.73% higher on the day at $52.74 after hitting an intraday high of $54.50 earlier in the session.

BHP investment case

Highlights from the most recent quarterlies / production results

In its full-year Operational Review released on 16 July 2026, BHP reported a strong finish to FY26, delivering record iron ore production and approximately 2 million tonnes of copper for the second consecutive year.

Key production figures: 

• Copper: 1,953kt, down 3% year-on-year (YoY), within raised guidance of 1,900 - 2,000kt
• Iron ore: Record 265Mt (+1%), with WAIO at a record 257Mt (291Mt on a 100% basis)
• Coal: BMA 18.6Mt (+3%), NSWEC 16.4Mt (+9%, above guidance)

Unit costs were well controlled despite inflation and higher diesel prices, with most copper assets finishing at the bottom end of their guidance ranges and WAIO within range.

Realised copper prices averaged US$5.74/lb, up 35% YoY, providing a significant earnings tailwind.

The balance sheet also strengthened, with net debt expected to finish the year at around US$9 billion, well below the midpoint of the company’s target range, helped by strong cash generation and proceeds from the Antamina silver streaming deal.

New CEO Brandon Craig summarised the year:

'We finished the year strongly, delivering safe and reliable operations while setting several performance records across the business... We enter the new year with momentum and significant opportunities to accelerate improvements in safety, productivity and reliability.'

The main point of caution for the market was FY27 copper guidance, which steps down to 1,650 - 1,800kt, a noticeable reduction driven primarily by the expected grade decline at Escondida.

While iron ore guidance remains solid at 260 - 272Mt, the softer near-term copper outlook was enough to outweigh the otherwise strong operational result. Shares fell 2.34% on the day to $59.14 as investors focused on the lower copper volumes expected next year.

Production report summary and forecasts  

What to expect from BHP’s FY26 earnings

The market will be looking for confirmation that the strong operational performance and higher commodity prices seen through the year have translated into solid full-year earnings and a healthy final dividend.

Key financial - Summary

• Revenue: ~US$57.8 billion (versus US$51.3 billion in FY25), expected up ~13%
• Underlying EBITDA: ~US$32.4 billion (versus US$26.0 billion in FY25), expected up ~25%
• Underlying attributable profit: ~US$12.6 billion (versus US$10.2 billion in FY25), expected up ~24%
• Full-year dividend: ~US$1.60 per share (versus US$1.10 in FY25)

Key areas of focus

Final dividend and payout ratio 

With net debt expected to finish the year at a comfortable ~US$9 billion, investors will be watching closely to see whether BHP can deliver a final dividend that supports a full-year payout at or above the 60% minimum. Any signal of additional returns would be well received.

Underlying profit and margins 

The result needs to show that the higher realised copper prices (up 35% for the year) and record iron ore volumes flowed through cleanly to the bottom line, with underlying EBITDA margins remaining robust.

Jansen Stage 2 impairment  

Following the June update that lifted the Stage 2 capital cost estimate from US$4.9 billion to US$6.9 billion, BHP is expected to book an impairment charge of approximately US$2.3 billion on the Jansen project. This will weigh on statutory profit even if underlying earnings are solid.

Cost performance 

Confirmation that unit costs across the major assets finished within or better than guidance, despite inflation and higher diesel prices, will be important for confidence in the cost base heading into FY27.

Copper outlook

Following the softer FY27 production guidance (1,650–1,800 kt) flagged in the July Operational Review, any further commentary on grade decline at Escondida or mitigation plans will be closely scrutinised.

Growth pipeline update 

Progress comments on Jansen Stage 1 (still targeting mid-2027 first production), Vicuña, Copper South Australia expansion options, and the potential Cerro Colorado restart will help shape the longer-term narrative.

Overall, a clean set of underlying numbers that meets or slightly beats consensus, paired with a solid dividend, should be well received. The main points of caution remain the Jansen impairment and the lower near-term copper volume outlook.

BHP underlying attributable profit / net income chart

BHP technical analysis

From its April 2025 'Liberation Day' low at $33.25, BHP has staged an impressive rally of approximately 100%, reaching a fresh record high of $65.98 in mid-June 2026.

The surge was fuelled by resilient commodity demand and a notable sector rotation, as investors shifted from overvalued banks into undervalued materials stocks starting in late 2025.

The subsequent pullback from the $65.98 high to the July low of $56.25 has now been almost fully erased. The share price is once again pressing towards the record high, currently trading around $64.11.

A sustained break above $65.98 would confirm the resumption of the broader uptrend and open the way for a move towards the $70 area.

On the downside, initial support sits at $59.40 from the March high, followed by the more significant July low at $56.25.

Overall, the chart remains constructively bullish, with the price action suggesting the correction has run its course and the path of least resistance remains higher, provided the upcoming earnings do not deliver a major negative surprise. 

BHP weekly chart 

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 11 August 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain, and is not to be taken as containing, any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}