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Global indices winners and losers

In the wake of Brexit funds initially piled out of Europe, but the global rally of the past week has seen investors tentatively begin to dip their toes back in (particularly in Austria’s ATX apparently!).

bg_us stocks new 1
Source: Bloomberg

The big winner of the lowered outlook for developed markets in the wake of Brexit is emerging markets. The big emerging markets ETF EEM has seen huge inflows in the past few weeks. Latin America has been a major beneficiary of those EM flows and it is no surprise that Brazil’s Ibovespa has seen some of the best performances of the week and the month. But speculation over the major 20 trillion yen fiscal stimulus package (alongside Pokemon-related irrational exuberance) has seen the Nikkei rocket up the charts over the past week as well. The Hang Seng also broke into a bull market today after gaining 20% from its February low.

NAME

5 Day

1 Month

YTD

NAME

5 Day

1 month

YTD

Austria 20

4.0

1.0

-7.3

Belgium 20

1.2

-0.6

-7.3

Japan 225

3.9

4.3

-11.4

Spain 35

1.2

-1.1

-10.1

Brazil 60

3.6

11.3

30.5

Greece 25

1.1

-8.0

-16.4

Mexico 35

2.7

3.9

10.5

Portugal 20

1.1

-0.6

-13.3

Germany Mid-Cap 50

2.4

2.3

0.5

France 40

1.0

0.3

-5.5

Taiwan Index

2.4

4.9

10.8

US 500

1.0

4.0

6.3

Sweden 30

2.2

3.1

-4.2

Singapore Blue Chip

0.9

5.3

1.2

Hong Kong HS50

2.2

6.6

0.6

FTSE

0.9

8.1

7.8

Germany 30

2.1

1.3

-5.6

China H-Shares

0.8

4.4

-6.0

Australia 200

2.1

4.7

4.3

Norway 25

0.8

3.4

3.9

US Tech 100

2.0

5.5

1.4

Russell 2000

0.7

4.8

6.5

Netherlands 25

1.7

2.7

2.3

Switzerland Blue Chip

0.7

3.3

-7.0

Italy 40

1.4

-3.8

-21.7

India 50

0.5

4.2

7.8

Hungary 12

1.4

2.8

15.3

South Africa 40

-0.2

-1.5

0.9

EU Stocks 50

1.4

0.0

-9.2

China A50

-0.3

3.2

-10.9

Wall Street

1.2

4.3

6.7

China 300

-0.7

4.8

-12.8

 

World Regions

The US and Latin America are the only two regions that have seen positive monthly and weekly gains. Emerging markets have seen some of the best returns over the past week, but it is fairly clear that Latin America is accounting for a large part of that with Brazil and Argentina, in particular, continuing to see strong gains.

Region

5 Day Return

1 Month Return

YTD Return

Asia-Pacific Ex-Japan

0.6

-4.2

0.8

Latin America

1.1

1.3

-8.4

Europe

-0.2

-12.4

2.3

Asia-Pacific

0.4

-5.5

2.1

Emerging Markets

0.6

-5.1

-2.8

DM Ex-USA

0.0

-10.2

2.6

USA

0.5

3.5

11.9

MSCI World

0.2

2.4

4.0

 

Global Sectors

There is a clear global sectoral rotation underway: investors have cut positions in commodities (materials and energy) and safe havens (consumer staples and telecoms) over the past week. The high beta ends of the market are seeing the best performances with big gains in IT, and to a lesser extent healthcare, over the past week. In the wake of better than expected US economic data and US bank earnings, some flows have been coming back into financials over the past week as well.

Sector

5 Day Return

1 Month Return

YTD Return

Consumer Staples

-0.7

2.1

8.7

Energy

-1.0

1.3

17.1

Materials

-1.4

2.7

13.3

Consumer Discretionary

0.3

1.6

-0.2

Utilities

0.1

2.0

13.1

Telecoms

-1.1

1.4

9.6

Industrials

0.3

2.5

8.2

Health Care

0.5

5.4

1.6

IT

2.0

4.9

4.7

Financials

0.4

-0.1

-4.8

Real Estate

0.7

4.2

11.3

 

Relative Strength Index

The RSI measures the amount of up days versus down days over the past 14 sessions. On the RSI, it is clear that Brazil, India and S&P 500 have some of the strong momentum in the world right now. But the premium to the 20-day moving average also throws up some interesting markets to watch at the moment as well. Brazil’s Ibovespa, Japan’s Nikkei, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Austria’s ATX are looking like some of the most compelling markets with strong momentum behind them.

NAME

RSI

Premium to 20-day SMA

NAME

RSI

Premium to 20-day SMA

Brazil 60

74.2

6.7

Netherlands 25

60.7

3.6

India 50

69.4

2.5

China H-Shares

60.5

3.7

Wall Street

69.0

3.1

Switzerland Blue Chip

59.4

2.3

Australia 200

68.5

4.4

Austria 20

58.8

4.9

Mexico 35

67.6

3.3

Germany 30

58.8

3.9

US Tech 100

67.3

4.1

China 300

58.7

1.7

FTSE

67.2

3.4

Norway 25

58.4

2.6

Taiwan Index

67.1

4.1

Belgium 20

56.3

2.7

Singapore Blue Chip

66.9

2.7

France 40

56.3

3.2

US 500

66.8

2.9

EU Stocks 50

56.3

3.3

Hong Kong HS50

66.5

5.2

Spain 35

55.6

3.9

Russell 2000

63.7

3.7

Portugal 20

53.2

2.6

Hungary 12

62.8

3.1

Italy 40

52.4

3.2

Germany Mid-Cap 50

61.8

4.3

China A50

51.7

1.2

Japan 225

61.5

6.6

South Africa 40

51.1

1.0

Sweden 30

60.8

3.9

Greece 25

50.4

3.9

 

Price-to-Earnings Ratio

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has finally surpassed Hungary’s P/E Ratio as flows are tentatively finding one of the least loved markets in the world. It is interesting that other markets with strong recent momentum, Brazil and Austria, are also ranked fairly low in comparative P/E terms. Arguably, the TINA (There Is No Alternative) effect, which is forcing investors to allocate to equities if they want any hope of positive real returns, is seeing investors find a new appreciation for relatively “undervalued” markets.

NAME

Forward P/E

NAME

Forward P/E

China H-Shares

7.8

Sweden 30

15.7

China A50

9.3

Norway 25

16.4

Hungary 12

12.0

Germany Mid-Cap 50

16.9

Hong Kong HS50

12.2

Australia 200

16.9

Austria 20

12.5

Greece 25

17.1

Singapore Blue Chip

12.8

Japan 225

17.3

Germany 30

12.9

Wall Street

17.3

China 300

13.5

FTSE

17.4

EU Stocks 50

13.9

South Africa 40

17.4

Brazil 60

14.3

Switzerland Blue Chip

17.6

Taiwan Index

14.3

India 50

17.7

Portugal 20

14.5

Netherlands 25

17.8

Belgium 20

14.7

US 500

18.5

France 40

14.8

US Tech 100

19.7

Italy 40

14.8

Mexico 35

20.9

Spain 35

15.3

Russell 2000

26.6

 

Global Indices Momentum Picks

Brazil – (Buy)

Brazil has had one of the strongest performances of the past month after gaining 11.3% despite the country still going through the worst economic recession since the 1930s. The prospect of major worldwide fiscal stimulus packages could also be a major driver to help the index move higher given Brazil is a major commodity exporter.

Japan – (Buy)

The tentative announcement of the 20 trillion yen stimulus package in Japan has helped weaken the yen substantially. If this trend continues and the package is announced as expected then there looks to be plenty of upside for Japanese equities in the near term.

Denne informasjonen er utarbeidet av IG, forretningsnavnet til IG Markets Limited. I tillegg til disclaimeren nedenfor, inneholder ikke denne siden oversikt over kurser, eller tilbud om, eller oppfordring til, en transaksjon i noe finansielt instrument. IG påtar seg intet ansvar for handlinger basert på disse kommentarene og for eventuelle konsekvenser som et resultat av dette. Ingen garanti gis for nøyaktigheten eller fullstendigheten av denne informasjonen. Personer som handler ut i fra denne informasjonen gjør det på egen risiko. Forskning gitt her tar ikke hensyn til spesifikke investeringsmål, finansiell situasjon og behov som angår den enkelte person som mottar dette. Denne informasjonen er ikke utarbeidet i samsvar med regelverket for investeringsanalyser, så derfor er denne informasjonen ansett å være markedsføringsmateriale. Selv om vi ikke er hindret i å handle i forkant av våre anbefalinger, ønsker vi ikke å dra nytte av dem før de blir levert til våre kunder. Se fullstendig disclaimer og kvartalsvis oppsummering.

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Denne informasjonen er utarbeidet av IG, forretningsnavnet til IG Markets Limited. I tillegg til disclaimeren nedenfor, inneholder ikke denne siden oversikt over kurser, eller tilbud om, eller oppfordring til, en transaksjon i noe finansielt instrument. IG påtar seg intet ansvar for handlinger basert på disse kommentarene og for eventuelle konsekvenser som et resultat av dette. Ingen garanti gis for nøyaktigheten eller fullstendigheten av denne informasjonen. Personer som handler ut i fra denne informasjonen gjør det på egen risiko. Forskning gitt her tar ikke hensyn til spesifikke investeringsmål, finansiell situasjon og behov som angår den enkelte person som mottar dette. Det er ikke utarbeidet i samsvar med lovens krav for å fremme uavhengighet av investeringsanalyse og som sådan er ansett av å være markedsføringskommunikasjon. Selv om vi ikke er hindret i å handle i forkant av våre anbefalinger, ønsker vi ikke å dra nytte av dem før de blir levert til våre kunder.