Week ahead July 6th 2026​​​​​

The week so far - highlights 

• The June Non-Farm Payrolls report showed the US economy added just 57,000 jobs, well below expectations of around 115,000. While the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, this was partly due to a sharp fall in the labour force participation rate. 

• US JOLTs job openings rose to 7.594 million in May, comfortably exceeding the 7.30 million consensus.

• The US ADP Employment report showed a gain of only 98,000 jobs in June, falling short of the 120,000 forecast. 

• US CB Consumer Confidence edged up to 91.2 from a revised 90.6, though it missed the 94.7 consensus forecast as households remain somewhat cautious regarding the near-term outlook.

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.3 in June from 54.0 prior, falling slightly below expectations but maintaining a solid footing in expansionary territory.

• US home price growth accelerated as the S&P/Case-Shiller Index rose 1.1% YoY in April, beating the 0.9% consensus estimate.

• Japanese Retail Sales surged 5.3% YoY in May, easily beating the 3.2% consensus and signalling a significant pick-up in consumer activity.

• The Q2 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index in Japan climbed to 22, blowing past the consensus forecast of 16 and marking a sharp improvement in business sentiment.

• China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI edged higher to 50.3 in June, beating the 50.1 forecast and confirming that industrial activity is gradually gaining traction.

• The RatingDog Manufacturing PMI for China remained in expansion at 51.7, slightly exceeding the 51.6 consensus despite a marginal dip from the previous month.

• Eurozone inflation cooled faster than anticipated as the headline Flash YoY print eased to 2.8% vs the 3% forecast, while Core inflation dropped to 2.4% vs expectations of 2.6%.

• European Economic Sentiment improved to 95.0 in June, exceeding the 94.3 consensus and marking a move toward more optimistic territory for the region.

• UK Nationwide Housing Prices rose 2.2% YoY in June, missing the 2.4% forecast as the recovery in property values appears to be losing some momentum.

• New Zealand's ANZ Business Confidence skyrocketed to 36.6 in June from 10.0 prior, suggesting a dramatic and sudden surge in local corporate optimism.

• WTI Crude oil fell 2.50% this week to $68.41.

• The US Dollar Index, the DXY decline by -0.40% this week to 100.95.

• Bitcoin rose 3.06% this week to $61,293.

• Gold rose 1.47% to $4149.

• Wall Street's gauge of fear, the Volatility (VIX) index, fell to 16.14 from 18.40 the previous week. 

Key dates for the week ahead

Australia + NZ

• AU – RBA Hunter Speech: Wednesday, July 08 at 11.00 AM
• NZ – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision: Wednesday, July 08 at 12.00 PM
• NZ – Business NZ PMI: Thursday, July 09 at 8.30 AM

China + Japan

• JP – Household Spending: Tuesday, July 07 at 9.30 AM
• JP – Current Account: Wednesday, July 08 at 9.50 AM
• CN – Inflation Rate: Thursday, July 09 at 11.30 AM
• CN – PPI: Thursday, July 09 at 11.30 AM

US

• US – ISM Services PMI: Tuesday, July 07 at 12.00 AM
• US – Balance of Trade: Tuesday, July 07 at 10.30 PM
• US – FOMC Minutes: Thursday, July 09 at 4.00 AM
• US – Initial Jobless Claims: Thursday, July 09 at 10.30 PM
• US – Existing Home Sales: Friday, July 10 at 12.00 AM

EU + UK

• EA – Retail Sales MoM: Monday, July 06 at 7.00 PM
• GB – Halifax House Price Index: Tuesday, July 07 at 4.00 PM
• GB – RICS House Price Balance: Thursday, July 09 at 9.01 AM

For the week ahead, the key events are:

NZ: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision: Wednesday, July 08 at 12.00 PM

At its last meeting in late May, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the Official Cash Rate steady at 2.25% for the third consecutive meeting in a split decision, with Governor Breman casting the deciding vote to keep rates on hold.

The accompanying minutes and statement delivered a clear hawkish pivot, noting that the OCR “will most likely need to increase sooner and by more than envisaged in the February Monetary Policy Statement.” Three internal members reportedly wanted to hold, citing the need to see progress on core inflation, wages, or inflation expectations before supporting a hike, giving them a blocking majority in theory.

However, the Governor and externals pushed a more aggressive tone, with Breman stating several times in the press conference that the bank “expects to raise the cash rate in the upcoming meetings.” The OCR path was revised meaningfully higher, to 2.50% for September 2026 (+23bp), to 2.80% (+46bp) for December 2026 and terminal increased by 30bps to 3.3% for Dec 2027.

The decision came against a backdrop of rising near-term inflation pressures linked to the Middle East conflict, which has lifted petrol, diesel, and other oil-derived costs, feeding through supply chains and hitting cash-strapped Kiwi households and businesses.

Data between the May and July meetings has been relatively sparse, and the July review will be closely watched for whether the RBNZ follows through on the hawkish rhetoric or maintains optionality.

A hold would likely disappoint markets that have priced in ~20bp or an ~80% chance of a 25bp rate hike next week which would take the cash rate to 2.50%. The rates market is pricing in a second 25bp rate hike in the last quarter of this year which would see the cash rate see out the year at 2.75%.

CN: Inflation Rate:

Inflation Rate: Thursday, July 09 at 11.30 AM

Last month, China’s annual consumer inflation rate held steady at 1.2% in May, unchanged from April and slightly below market expectations. Core inflation remained subdued around 1.1%, reflecting ongoing weakness in domestic demand despite some support from higher gasoline and services prices.

Recent activity data adds further context to the subdued inflation backdrop. The June Manufacturing PMI beat expectations at 50.3 versus a consensus of 50.1, helped by stronger exports and a quarter-end production push. However, domestic demand remains soft, with the Services PMI holding largely steady at 50.4 and construction staying in contraction territory at 49.0. 

The CPI June data will be watched for signs of whether the world’s second-largest economy is gaining any meaningful reflationary momentum or remains stuck in a low-inflation environment that could prompt further policy support from Beijing. Second-quarter GDP is currently tracking around 4.4% year-on-year, and the July Politburo meeting may signal an acceleration in fiscal rollout from the third quarter, with a focus on strategic infrastructure under the “Six Networks” initiative.

Economists expect the June reading to come in close to 1.2% year-on-year, with limited upside from the recent easing in global energy prices offset by still-soft consumer spending.

US: ISM Services PMI

US – ISM Services PMI: Tuesday, July 07 at 12.00 AM

Last month, the ISM Services PMI rose to 54.5 in May, beating expectations and marking the strongest reading in three months as business activity and new orders accelerated. 

Within the details, the employment sub-index remained in contraction territory for a third straight month (47.9 vs 48), while price pressures intensified to their highest level since August 2022 (71.3 vs 70.7) with diesel, gasoline and oil related products driving the gains. 

Economists expect the June reading to ease modestly to around 54.0, reflecting a still resilient but cooling services sector on higher input costs and some pullback in demand momentum. 

The data will provide an early read on the health of the dominant US services economy heading into the second half of the year and could influence rate expectations ahead of the next FOMC meeting.

US: FOMC Minutes

US – FOMC Minutes: Thursday, July 09 at 4.00 AM

Last month’s FOMC meeting left the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range while delivering a hawkish pivot.

This included a dramatic shift in the dot plot, with nine officials now expecting at least one rate hike by the end of 2026, and the statement dropping previous easing language. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a firm tone in the press conference, repeatedly emphasising “price stability” and signalling that he wants markets to react to the data rather than front-run the Fed.

The minutes from the June meeting pre predate the softer Non-Farm Payrolls report for June and Warsh’s assessment of moderating inflation risks earlier this week. Nonetheless, they will be closely scrutinised for any additional colour on the balance of risks around inflation and the labour market, as well as the Committee’s evolving views on the appropriate path for policy in the second half of the year. 

The US rates market starts the day pricing in only a 17% (around 4.5bp) chance of a Fed rate hike next month, with a full 25bp hike now pushed back until December.