Week ahead August 10th 2026​​​​​

US equity markets are poised to finish the week on a buoyant note, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 both notching fresh record highs. The Nasdaq 100 has also recovered strongly, rebounding more than 10% from last week’s clearing event low. The advance has been supported by a solid run of corporate earnings, resilient economic data and a sharp decline in oil prices that helped ease yields and reduce some of the recent inflation-related caution.

Closer to home, the ASX 200 hit record highs and looks set to finish the week more than 3% higher. The local bourses gains have been underpinned by last week’s cooler inflation numbers and a softer tone from the RBA Governor on Tuesday, which has reinforced expectations that the cash rate will remain on hold at 4.35% next month. Solid earnings updates have provided additional support, as has this week’s stronger than expected household spending data.

The week so far - highlights 

• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July surged to 55.6, comfortably exceeding the consensus forecast of 54.0 and marking a solid expansion from the 53.3 recorded in June.

• Staying in the US, the ADP employment report showed private payrolls added just 44,000 jobs in July, a significant miss against the 70,000 expected and down from the 95,000 prior.

• The US ISM Services PMI for July edged up to 54.1, slightly missing the consensus for a 54.5 print but remaining firmly in expansionary territory.

• Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 199,000 for the week ending August 1, coming in better than the 202,000 expected by the market.

• China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI for July slipped to 50.9, missing the consensus forecast of 51.5 and slowing from the 51.7 recorded in the previous month.

• Staying in China, the RatingDog Services PMI fell sharply to 50.4 in July, significantly below expectations of 53.7 and marking a notable cooldown from the 54.1 prior.

• Eurozone Retail Sales fell -0.3% MoM in June, missing expectations for a 0.1% rise and reversing the 0.4% gain seen in May.

• Australia’s trade balance returned to a surplus of A$1.929 billion in June, obliterating the consensus forecast for a A$1.1 billion deficit following a weak May reading.

• Staying in Australia - Household Spending rose by 0.8% MoM in June well above the 0.2% expected. 

• In New Zealand, the unemployment rate rose to 5.6% in the second quarter, exceeding the 5.4% consensus forecast despite employment growing by 0.5% QoQ.

• WTI crude oil fell 7.75% this week to $78.11.

• The US Dollar Index, the DXY rose 0.16% to 99.96 

• Bitcoin is  trading marginally higher this week at $64,301.

• Gold is trading 4.92% higher this week at $4244.

• Wall Street's gauge of fear, the Volatility (VIX) index, eased to 15.14 this week from 16.00 the previous week.

Key dates for the week ahead

Australia & New Zealand

• AU – NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, August 11 at 11.30 AM 
• AU – RBA Interest Rate Decision: Tuesday, August 11 at 2.30 PM 
• AU – RBA Press Conference: Tuesday, August 11 at 3.30 PM 
• AU – RBA Kent Speech: Thursday, August 13 at 10.15 AM 
• NZ – Business NZ PMI: Friday, August 14 at 8.30 AM 
• AU – Home Loans QoQ: Friday, August 14 at 11.30 AM

China + Japan

• JP – BoJ Summary of Opinions: Monday, August 10 at 9.50 AM
• JP – Current Account: Monday, August 10 at 9.50 AM
• CN – New Yuan Loans: Thursday, August 13 (Time TBD)
• CN – Current Account Prel: Friday, August 14 at 7.00 PM

United States

• US – Existing Home Sales: Wednesday, August 12 at 12.00 AM
• US – CPI: Wednesday, August 12 at 10.30 PM
• US – PPI: Thursday, August 13 at 10.30 PM
• US – Initial Jobless Claims: Thursday, August 13 at 10.30 PM
• US – Retail Sales MoM: Friday, August 14 at 10.30 PM
• US – Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel: Saturday, August 15 at 12.00 AM 

Europe + United Kingdom

• GB – GDP Growth Rate QoQ/YoY Prel: Thursday, August 13 at 4.00 PM
• GB – GDP MoM/3-Month Avg: Thursday, August 13 at 4.00 PM
• EA – Balance of Trade: Friday, August 14 at 7.00 PM
• EA – Employment Change QoQ/YoY Prel: Friday, August 14 at 7.00 PM

Key events for the week ahead

AU: RBA Interest Rate Decision

Date: Tuesday, August 11 at 2.30 PM 

At its June meeting the Reserve Bank of Australia left the official cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in a unanimous decision. This followed three consecutive 25 basis point hikes earlier in the year that had taken the cash rate from 3.60% to 4.35%.

In the accompanying statement, the Board noted that inflation remained too high, with both headline and underlying measures still elevated. While oil prices had eased from their peaks, energy and related commodity prices were still higher than before the Middle East conflict. The Board observed signs that some firms were passing on cost pressures and that short-term inflation expectations, although lower than earlier in the year, remained elevated. Financial conditions had tightened following the earlier rate increases, consumer spending growth was slowing as expected, and housing market momentum had shifted, with prices falling in some capital cities.

In the post-meeting press conference, Governor Bullock emphasised that the three hikes had put the Board in a better position to assess how previous tightening was flowing through the economy. She made clear that inflation was still too high and that the decision did not rule out further rate increases if required. At the same time, she stressed that it would take time for the full effects of the earlier tightening to be felt, and that the Board now had space to monitor developments in the Middle East conflict and the domestic response to higher rates.

Since the June meeting, incoming data has generally been softer. The June CPI report released in late July showed annual headline inflation falling to 3.8% from 4.0% in May. The RBA’s preferred trimmed mean measure held steady at 3.6% year-on-year — a better outcome than feared. This was preceded a day earlier by a speech from Governor Bullock that struck a somewhat less hawkish tone. She stopped short of describing the August meeting as genuinely live in the Q&A and acknowledged housing and employment weakness, as well as the already restrictive stance of policy.

These twin events have left markets pricing in a very high probability that the cash rate will remain at 4.35% next week. Attention will therefore focus on the accompanying statement and Governor Bullock’s press conference for any fresh guidance.

With inflation still above target but growth clearly slowing and the geopolitical risk premium in oil having eased, the market will be watching closely for any shift in language around the balance of risks and whether the Board is moving towards a more neutral bias from a tightening bias.

Chart – RBA Cash Rate

US: CPI

Date: Wednesday, August 12 at 10.30 PM

Last month’s June CPI report showed a surprisingly soft outcome, with the headline index falling 0.4% month-on-month and the annual rate easing to 3.5% from 4.2%, below forecasts of 3.8%. Core CPI fell to 2.6% year-on-year from 2.9% previously — well below expectations and the softest reading in several months.

July’s figures will be scrutinised for evidence of whether that moderation is sustained. Consensus expects headline inflation to fall to 3.4% YoY and the core reading to edge lower to 2.5%.

Outcomes in line with this would add to the case for the Federal Reserve remaining patient. A hotter-than-expected print — for example core inflation rising back to 2.9% — would likely push rate-hike probabilities higher again ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

Chart – US Core Inflation Rate

US: Q2 Earnings Season

US Q2 2026 earnings season slows next week, with the main highlights being reports from Super Micro Computer, CoreWeave and JD.com.