Week commencing 6 April 2026

US rebound lifts sentiment, while Australian market faces emerging headwinds

United States (US) equity markets appear poised to snap a five‑week losing streak this week, following a solid rebound in the first half of the period. Investors have welcomed a combination of better‑than‑expected economic data and growing hopes of de‑escalation in the Middle East conflict, which have helped to ease, at least for now, some of the intense pressures that weighed heavily on sentiment in recent weeks.

Turning to the local market, the ASX 200 is also poised to finish a holiday‑shortened week around 1.0% higher, having seemingly put the bruising ‘Ides of March’ behind it. However, fresh headwinds are brewing for the local index.

Corporate Australia is expected to soon step forward with updated guidance on demand, pricing and activity, inevitably reflecting the significant impact of the recent energy shock, rising interest rates and looming supply chain disruptions that have rendered February’s earnings guidance largely outdated.

The week that was: highlights

• The US S&P Global composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 51.4 in March from 51.9 previously, signalling a slower pace of expansion
• US job openings and labour turnover survey (JOLTS) job openings for February edged lower to 6.882 million, slightly below the 6.92 million consensus
• US automatic data processing (ADP) employment change for March showed 62,000 jobs added, comfortably exceeding the 40,000 consensus forecast
• US headline retail sales for February rose 0.6% month-on-month (MoM), exceeding the 0.5% consensus. The retail control group climbed 0.5% against a 0.3% consensus
• The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI for March continued to expand, rising to 52.7 and beating the 52.5 consensus forecast
• China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) manufacturing PMI for March returned to expansion at 50.4, exceeding the 50.1 consensus and rising from 49.0 previously. The non‑manufacturing PMI also improved to 50.1, above the 49.9 consensus
• Japan’s Tankan large manufacturers index for the first quarter (Q1) improved to 17, beating the 16 consensus and rising from 16 previously, indicating improved business sentiment
• The euro area inflation rate year-on-year (YoY) for March unexpectedly rose to 2.5%, above the prior 1.9%, although core inflation eased slightly to 2.3% from 2.4%
• The euro area unemployment rate for February ticked up to 6.2%, marginally above the 6.1% consensus
• Australian building approvals rebounded sharply in February, surging 29.7% MoM and vastly outperforming the 6.5% consensus
• New Zealand’s ANZ business confidence index for March plunged to 32.5 from 59.2 previously, signalling a sharp deterioration in sentiment
• WTI crude oil gained 4.28% to $103.88.
• The US dollar index (DXY) fell 0.26% to 99.93
• Bitcoin rose 1.31% to $66,815
• Gold gained 0.24% to $4678
• Wall Street’s gauge of fear, the volatility index (VIX), fell to 24.53 from 31.04 the previous week.

Key dates for the week ahead

Australia & New Zealand

• New Zealand – Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision: Wednesday, 8 April at 1.00pm AEDT
  New Zealand – Business NZ PMI March: Friday, 10 April at 9.30am AEDT

China & Japan

• China – inflation rate March: Friday, 10 April at 12.30pm AEDT
• China – producer price index YoY March: Friday, 10 April at 12.30pm AEDT

United States

• US – ISM services PMI March: Tuesday, 7 April at 1.00am AEDT
• US – durable goods orders MoM February: Tuesday, 7 April at 11.30pm AEDT
• US – Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes: Thursday, 9 April at 5.00am AEDT
• US – core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index February: Thursday, 9 April at 11.30pm AEDT
• US – gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) final fourth quarter (Q4): Thursday, 9 April at 11.30pm AEDT
• US – personal income MoM February: Thursday, 9 April at 11.30pm AEDT
• US – personal spending MoM February: Thursday, 9 April at 11.30pm AEDT
• US – inflation rate March: Friday, 10 April at 11.30pm AEDT
• US – Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary April: Saturday, 11 April at 1.00am AEDT

Europe & United Kingdom

• EU - retail sales MoM February: Wednesday, 8 April at 8.00pm AEDT
• UK – Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balance March: Thursday, 9 April at 10.01am AEDT

Key events for the week ahead

US: ISM services PMI

Date: Tuesday, 7 April at 1.00am AEDT

Last month, the ISM services PMI climbed to 56.1 in February from 53.8 previously, marking the strongest expansion since August 2022 and comfortably beating consensus expectations of 53.5. Business activity accelerated to 59.9, new orders jumped to 58.6 and employment edged back into expansion at 51.8, while the prices index eased modestly but remained elevated at 63.0.

The March reading will be closely monitored for signs that services‑sector momentum is holding up despite ongoing tariff uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Economists expect a modest moderation, although a reading that remains firmly above 55 would highlight resilient domestic demand and reinforce the strength of the US economy. A softer outcome, by contrast, could signal early stress in a sector that continues to underpin the bulk of US growth.

US ISM services PMI chart

US: Core PCE price index

Date: Thursday, 9 April at 11.30pm AEDT

The Federal Reserve (Fed) preferred inflation measure, the core PCE price index, rose 3.1% YoY in January, up from 3.0% the prior month and marking the highest reading in two years, well above the Fed’s 2% target.

February’s data, which precedes the expected inflationary impact of the Iran conflict, is forecast to ease slightly to around 3.0%. This follows comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier this week that inflation expectations remain well anchored. Those remarks have revived market expectations for a Fed rate cut later this year, with traders now pricing in roughly 7 basis points (bp) of easing, a notable reversal from the 12 bp of tightening priced just a week earlier.

Core PCE price index annual change chart

CN: Inflation rate

Date: Friday, 10 April at 12.30pm AEDT

Last month, China’s consumer price inflation (CPI) accelerated to 1.3% YoY in February from 0.2% in January, marking the strongest reading since January 2023 and exceeding the 0.8% consensus forecast. Lunar New Year effects boosted food prices, while core inflation jumped to 1.8%, the firmest pace since March 2019.

The upcoming March release will test whether the rebound has durability or was largely calendar driven. Economists are forecasting a moderation to 1.1% YoY. A stronger‑than‑expected outcome would reinforce confidence in Beijing’s stimulus efforts, while a weaker result could reignite concerns around persistent deflationary pressures.

CN inflation rate chart