Week commencing 2 March 2026

NVIDIA impacts US market stability; ASX200 hits record high

After another choppy week, United States (US) equity markets are poised to finish near the flatline. NVIDIA's impressive fourth-quarter (Q4) earnings met with disappointment, pressuring the Nasdaq 100 towards its third monthly loss in four months. However, this sparked rotation into defensive and cyclical stocks, keeping the Dow Jones on track for its tenth straight month of gains.

Closer to home, the ASX 200 hit a fresh record high of 9202.9, supported by a stellar February earnings season. Entering the final stretch for February, the index is up 3.50% month-to-date, on track for a third consecutive month of gains and its largest monthly advance since May.

The week that was: highlights

• US factory orders contracted by -0.7% month-on-month (MoM) in December, missing the consensus forecast of -0.5%
• Also in the US, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 1.4% year-on-year (YoY) in December, matching expectations and holding steady from the previous month
• US consumer confidence improved to 91.2 in February, exceeding the consensus forecast of 87 and rising from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January
• US initial jobless claims climbed by 4000 to 212,000 in the third week of February
• Australia's headline inflation rate held steady at 3.8% YoY in January, slightly above the consensus forecast of 3.7%
• In Japan (JP), retail sales in January rose 1.8% from -0.0% prior
• The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) preferred inflation measure, the trimmed mean, ticked up to 3.4% YoY in January, above expectations of 3.3% and rising from 3.3% in the previous month
• In New Zealand (NZ), ANZ Business Confidence for February fell to 59.2 from 64.1 prior
• Crude oil fell 1.77% to $65.30
• Gold rose 1.50% to $5184
• Bitcoin fell 0.22% to $67,456
• Wall Street's gauge of fear, the volatility index (VIX), eased to 18.62 from 19.08 the previous week.

Key dates for the week ahead

Australia & New Zealand

• AU company gross profits quarter-on-quarter (QoQ): Monday, 2 March at 11.30am AEDT
• AU building permits: Tuesday, 3 March at 11.30am AEDT
• AU Q4 gross domestic product (GDP): Wednesday, 4 March at 11.30am AEDT
• AU balance of trade: Thursday, 5 March at 11.30am AEDT

China & Japan

• CN RatingDog manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI): Monday, 2 March at 12.45pm AEDT
• JP unemployment: Tuesday, 3 March at 10.30am AEDT
• CN NBS manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 4 March at 12.30pm AEDT
• CN NBS non-manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 4 March at 12.30pm AEDT
• CN RatingDog services PMI: Wednesday, 4 March at 12.45pm AEDT

United States

• ISM manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 3 March at 2.00am AEDT
• ISM services PMI: Thursday, 5 March at 2.00am AEDT
• Factory orders: Friday, 6 March at 12.30am AEDT
• Non-farm payrolls: Saturday, 7 March at 12.30am AEDT

Europe & United Kingdom

• EA inflation rate YoY flash: Tuesday, 3 March at 9.00pm AEDT
• EA  unemployment rate: Wednesday, 4 March at 9.00pm AEDT

Key events for the week ahead

RatingDog manufacturing PMI

Date: Monday, 2 March at 12.45pm AEDT

For January, the RatingDog Manufacturing PMI edged higher to 50.3 from December's 50.1, closely aligning with market expectations. It was the fastest pace of expansion since last October, supported by firmer new orders (including a welcome lift in exports) and a modest uptick in output. Firms added a few staff for the first time in three months, although the gain was small. Input costs rose at the quickest rate since September due to higher metal prices, which allowed selling prices to finally increase after a prolonged period of weakness. The only concern was a decline in business sentiment to a nine-month low as worries about broader growth persisted.

The February print will be the first significant reading after the Lunar New Year holiday, so some noise is expected, but the market generally anticipates a modest rise to around the 50.5 area. A reading above 50 would be seen as a positive for the renminbi (CNY) and risk sentiment, particularly if it suggests earlier policy support is starting to be effective. Conversely, a decline back below 50 would reignite discussions about the need for more stimulus.

RatingDog manufacturing PMI chart

EA: inflation rate YoY flash

Date: Tuesday, 3 March at 9.00pm AEDT

January's flash showed 1.7% YoY as expected, marking the lowest since September 2024. Core inflation fell to 2.2%, its lowest level since October 2021, highlighting that the disinflation process is still underway.

For February, the consensus is approximately 1.7 - 1.8%. Core inflation is expected to dip further towards 2.1%, reflecting ongoing moderation in services and softer non-energy industrial goods.

With the European Central Bank (ECB) having left rates unchanged in early February and appearing content to maintain this stance, the threshold for any shift remains high. A result in line with expectations will support the 'patient, data-dependent' approach and keep rate cut expectations deferred to the second half of the year.

EA headline inflation chart

AU Q4 GDP

Date: Wednesday, 4 March at 11.30am AEDT

The third quarter (Q3) 2025 showed a 0.4% QoQ growth, below the 0.7% consensus forecast but sufficient to maintain the annual rate at 2.1%. This marked the 16th consecutive quarter of growth for the Australian economy.

• Per capita GDP: was flat (0.0% QoQ), following a 0.3% rise in the June quarter
• The household saving-to-income ratio: increased to 6.4% from 6.0%, as nominal disposable income growth outpaced spending amid ongoing cost-of-living pressures
• Household spending: grew 0.5% QoQ - contributing 0.3 percentage points (pp) to GDP - slower than the prior quarter's revised 0.7%
• Inventories :detracted -0.5 pp from growth, with mining stocks drawn down to meet coal export demand.
• Net trade: subtracted -0.1 pp, as imports rose 1.5%, outpacing exports (+1.0%)
• Labour productivity (GDP per hour worked): rose 0.2% QoQ and 0.8% through the year - a modest improvement, but still below the ~1% annual trend needed for sustainable gains
• Government spending: grew 0.8% QoQ (contributing 0.2 pp), driven by state and local outlays on health, education, and social benefits, such as Medicare and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme
• Public investment: rebounded 3.0% QoQ (contributing 0.2 percentage points) after three consecutive declines, boosted by renewable energy, water infrastructure, road and rail projects, and defence spending on domestic weapon platforms.

Overall, domestic final demand, particularly private investment at +2.9% QoQ, led by machinery and equipment for data centres, offset the drags from inventories and trade, contributing to the 0.4% headline growth.

At this point (before all partials are released), the market expects around 0.6% for Q4 2025 GDP, with the annual rate at approximately 2.1% YoY, just below the RBA's December 2025 forecast of 2.3% YoY.

A figure in line with this will unlikely alter expectations for the RBA's next rate hike, anticipated for May 2026.

AU GDP chart

US non-farm payrolls

Date: Saturday, 7 March at 12.30am AEDT

January's non-farm payrolls report surprised with the US economy adding 130,000 jobs versus the 55 - 70,000 forecast range, resulting in an unemployment rate drop to 4.3% from 4.4%.

Even after downward benchmark revisions to prior months, the solid headline figure helped ease concerns about a rapidly cooling labour market that had been building at the end of 2025.

For February, consensus estimates a more 'normal' gain in the 70,000 - 90,000 range, with the unemployment rate steady around 4.3% - 4.4%. Following the January outlier, this reading will test whether the labour market is stabilising at a slower but positive pace or if the softer trend from late last year is re-emerging. Currently, the US interest-rate market is pricing in roughly 50 basis points (bp) of Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts in 2026, with the first 25 bp move expected in July and another in December.

US unemployment rate chart

US Q4 2025 earnings season

The Q4 2025 earnings season is heading into its final stretch, with upcoming reports from companies such as Target, Crowdstrike, Broadcom, Okta, JD.Com, Costco, and Marvel Entertainment.