US stocks gain despite tariff setback for Trump

US stocks rise amid tariff ruling and mixed economic data

United States (US) stocks finished higher on Friday, led by the tech sector in a session that featured the Supreme Court striking down President Trump's International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs and a less-than-ideal mix of economic data: slower growth paired with firmer inflation. For the week, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.13% (snapping a three-week losing streak), the S&P 500 rose 1.07%, and the Dow Jones added 230 points (0.47%).

The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that President Trump's use of the IEEPA to impose sweeping tariffs was unlawful. This decision invalidates the broad 'reciprocal' and drug-related tariffs imposed last year, potentially opening the door for thousands of companies and importers to seek refunds on billions in duties already paid, though the Court left specific refund decisions to lower courts.

The administration has since implemented a temporary 15% universal tariff under Section 122, limited to 150 days without congressional extension. Overall, we think this outcome was largely expected, meaning investor sentiment on tariffs and risk sentiment are unlikely to shift dramatically. This view appears to be playing out this Monday morning, with US S&P 500 futures falling a relatively modest 0.50% at the time of writing.

Economic data recap and future outlook

Recapping Friday night's economic data, the advanced reading of fourth-quarter (Q4) 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) slumped to 1.4%, down from 4.4% in the prior quarter, well below expectations of approximately 3.0%, heavily impacted by the government shutdown. Meanwhile, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred gauge, firmed to 3.0% year-over-year (YoY) in December, up from 2.8% prior.

Looking ahead, the US earnings season enters the home straight this week with results expected from companies including Home Depot, HP, Zoom Video Communications, Salesforce, Snowflake, Dell Technologies, CoreWeave, Intuit, Zscaler, and the much-anticipated NVIDIA.

Aside from earnings, the key point of interest will be the Central Bank (CB) consumer confidence index for February.

CB consumer confidence

Date: Wednesday, 25 February at 2.00am AEDT

Last month, January's consumer confidence took a sharp hit, falling by 9.7 points to 84.5 from an upwardly revised 94.2 in December - the lowest level since May 2014 (82.2), below the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic period.

Looking ahead to February, the market anticipates a modest rebound in confidence to 87.3. This optimism stems from recent evidence of labour market stabilisation, with jobless claims showing resilience and unemployment figures remaining steady. However, for a sustained improvement in consumer sentiment, clear signs of easing inflation and greater economic certainty will be crucial.

CB consumer confidence chart

Nasdaq 100 technical analysis

The Nasdaq 100 commenced a correction following the formation of a double top and a 'loss of momentum' weekly candle in late January. This correction followed a remarkable run higher.

Ideally, the correction could still test the 200-day moving average at 23,994, a level that coincides closely with the 21 November low of 23,854, where signs of basing could emerge.

On the topside, a break above the mid-February 25,382 high would be an initial sign the correction is complete. However, the index really needs to see a sustained break above the 26,150 – 26,200 resistance area or record highs to reignite its upside prospects.

Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart

Dow Jones technical analysis

The Dow Jones burst to life in early February, hitting a fresh record high of 50,512 before retreating below 50,000, where it spent the majority of last week. As seen on the daily chart, the retreat tested and held important trendline support at approximately 49,150 (drawn from the Liberation Day 36,611 low).

As long as the Dow Jones remains above this support, a retest and break of the 50,512 high is likely before a push toward 51,000. However, a sustained break below the support at 49,150 – 49,050 would warn that a deeper pullback is underway, initially to support at 48,500 – 48,400, before 48,000.

Dow Jones daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 23 February 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}