Retreating greenback gives gold and silver a higher finish, oil unchanged

Price moves have been in line with technical overviews but fundamental item tonight in the form of the Fed’s minutes set to impact the greenback and risk.

GOLD: Slight risk-off play and greenback retreat keeps gold’s price near the highs

A slightly higher finish for this pair’s price following two days of consecutive declines have enticed a few retail traders into taking profit, with majority long bias dropping 2% to a majority long 62% and significantly less than the extreme long 86% bias held by larger traders as per the latest CoT report released at the end of last week. As it stands, the technical overview remains bullish, but fundamental catalysts await with Fed minutes tonight that could effect rate cut likelihoods, and non-yielding assets like gold as well. Following the minutes we’ve got Friday’s Powell as the next key item.

SILVER: Outperforming compared to gold with a stronger green finish

With the US dollar in slight retreat in the FX market, expectations were for an easy finish higher for this pair. However, silver’s price managed to outperform, though its price overall still remains somewhat range-bound near the highs and in need of another catalyst, that could come in the form of USD weakness if tonight’s Fed minutes show any signs of a need for a further rate cut. The absence of that however, could propel the dollar higher, and dent commodities priced in the greenback (like this one). Retail bias has inched a notch lower to an extreme long 87%.

OIL – US CRUDE: Largely unchanged for the session despite API surplus

Despite an API surplus of 3.5M that ideally should have taken oil lower for the session, a combination of weakness in the dollar and awaiting a more encompassing EIA estimate tonight kept the session’s finish mostly unchanged compared to its start. Expectations are for a slight 1.4M deficit this evening before attention shifts to the dollar as any signs of further easing from the Fed would aid the energy commodity, while any hints of disagreement on another rate cut at this stage could put equities in retreat in a risk-off play, and take oil prices down with it.


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