Market relief short‑lived as fresh strikes test oil’s retreat and gold’s rebound

Geopolitical twists spark sharp commodity reversals

Crude oil and gold both came under heavy pressure yesterday as markets tried to make sense of the latest dramatic twists in the Middle East standoff.

WTI crude oil posted a jaw-dropping 10.36% decline, closing at $88.13 after a wild intraday swing from a high of $101.67 to a low of $84.73. The heavy selling was triggered by President Trump’s announcement of a five-day delay on potential United States (US) strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure. Trump called recent talks with Iranian leaders ‘very good and productive’, effectively taking the immediate 48-hour ultimatum off the table.

While this defused the short-term tension, the underlying situation remains incredibly fragile. Iran initially denied any knowledge of the talks, although reports suggest the US administration may have identified a potential new negotiating partner willing to consider a ceasefire. However, some of this optimism has been overshadowed this morning by fresh reports of US and Israeli strikes on energy-related buildings in Iran’s Isfahan region, which has seen crude oil bounce 3% to $91.53.

Presumably, these latest strikes are designed to bring all of Iran’s new leadership group onto the same ceasefire page ahead of Trump’s revised deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is now set for Friday. Crucially, this deadline coincides with the expected arrival of 2200 Marines of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit in the Gulf Region, along with the USS Tripoli and USS New Orleans.

Safe-haven gold shakes as selling accelerates

Meanwhile, gold, usually the most reliable of all safe havens, closed 1.82% lower overnight at $4405 after diving 9% earlier in the session to an intraday low of $4097. The sell-off was driven by a wave of stop-loss selling and deleveraging once gold broke below the key $4402 level from 2 February.

We have written about the downside risks for gold from both a macro and technical perspective for a number of weeks now. Our macro analysis, highlighted in an article here from 10 March, pointed to two key factors:

1. Extended Middle East conflict driving higher energy prices and inflation, leading to a stronger US dollar and fewer Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.
2. A rapid de-escalation in the Middle East effectively removing one of the main geopolitical pillars that propelled gold to record highs earlier this year.

A third compelling reason has also emerged of late: reports suggest GCC countries, typically big buyers of gold in recent years, are now selling their holdings to boost liquidity as the Middle East conflict crimps their energy cash flows. If accurate, and if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, it implies we have not seen the last of these sell flows.

Looking ahead, the situation in the Middle East will remain the dominant driver for both commodities, specifically whether the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened either diplomatically or by force, before more lasting economic damage is done.

WTI crude oil technical analysis

At the beginning of March, WTI crude oil finally broke out of its long-standing $55 – $65 range, surging to a high of $119.48 on 9 March before promptly rejecting that level.

Since then, price action has been volatile. The market tested support near $75, from which it bounced sharply, only to run into resistance just above $100 – a level it has also rejected.

Looking ahead, we think this type of whippy price action is here to stay for the foreseeable future. We expect WTI to continue trading within a wide and choppy range between $75 support and $105 resistance.

WTI crude oil daily candlestick chart

Gold technical analysis

In our update from 10 March, our view was that the sell-off from the $5602 high down to the $4402 low marked a Wave A (the first leg of a three-wave correction). The subsequent rally from that $4402 low up to the early March high of $5419 was classified as Wave B (the second leg).

Last week’s decisive break below support at $5000 confirmed that the third leg lower – Wave C – was underway.

The wave equality target for Wave C sat in the $4209 area, reinforced by the 200-day moving average just below at $4091. This is precisely the zone gold tested and bounced from yesterday. In doing so, yesterday’s price action left behind evidence of capitulation and a potential base.

This leads us to believe that gold has likely completed its correction from the late January high of $5602 at yesterday’s $4099 low. Consequently, we have shifted to a bullish bias, leaning firmly against yesterday's $4099 low as our key support level. Our conviction in this bullish turn will increase significantly if gold can rally above yesterday’s high in the $4550 area.

Gold daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 24 March 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}