AU earnings season
As Qantas prepares to release its HY 2026 results, the market is focused on potential earnings growth, fleet expansions, and strategic responses to the evolving travel landscape.
Qantas Airways, Australia's national carrier and one of the world's most recognised airlines, will release its half-year (HY) results for the six months ended 31 December 2025 on Thursday, 26 February 2026, before the market opens.
Qantas delivered another strong full-year result in the financial year (FY) 2025, reporting underlying profit before tax of $2.39 billion (15% year-over-year (YoY)) and statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of $1.61 billion (28%) on revenues of $23.82 billion.
The company declared a final fully franked dividend of 16.5 cents per share and a special fully franked payout of 9.9 cents, the largest combined distribution in 17 years.
The year also saw 17 new aircraft delivered, and Qantas reported orders for 20 additional A321XLR aircraft, 16 with lie-flat business seats, in the new financial year.
Qantas Group Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Vanessa Hudson captured the mood in her comments: 'Continuing strong demand across all market segments, combined with our dual brand strategy, helped the group grow earnings. Qantas and Jetstar carried four million more customers during the year, while our loyalty business grew as frequent flyers engaged with the program more than ever before.'
Following its earnings announcement, Qantas's share price jumped 13.5% intraday to a fresh record high of $12.62, before finishing the session 9.1% higher at $12.12.
The subsequent November 2025 trading update added a touch of caution: international unit revenue guidance remained steady at 2% – 3%, but softer non-resource corporate travel in the domestic market led to a revised first half (H1) 2026 domestic unit revenue outlook of approximately 3% growth (at the lower end of the prior range). This resulted in the share price finishing the session 6.58% lower at $9.51.
The market is braced for another solid result, underpinned by resilient leisure and premium international travel. Just this week, Qantas launched its first Double Status Credits promotion of 2026 (book by 2 March for travel through to February 2027), signalling management's confidence in strong forward bookings and a desire to fill seats early. This came a day after competitor Virgin Australia unveiled its own status credits offer.
Consensus expectations for HY 2026 are:
After peaking at $12.62 in August last year, Qantas shares corrected sharply, dropping more than 25% before finding solid support near the rising trend line around $9.30 in late November.
The stock has since recovered steadily, reaching a recent high of $10.84 last week before pulling back slightly. It now sits just ahead of Thursday's HY 2026 earnings release, trading right on the 200-day moving average (currently at $10.58).
Providing the price remains above the uptrend support currently at $10.00, the chart remains mildly bullish. However, should the share price see a sustained fall below support at $10.00 – $9.90, it would warn of a deeper retracement towards the $9.32 low of November last year.
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