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Moderna 2020 earnings preview: 3 things to consider

Moderna Inc will announce its full-year and fourth quarter earnings today. Here are some things for investors to note in the meantime.

  • Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) share price is up nearly 30% so far in 2021
  • The biotechnology company is scheduled to release its Q4 and full-year earnings for fiscal 2020 today
  • Analysts are expecting an improvement in adjusted loss per share for the quarter
  • They will also be paying close attention to Moderna’s Q1 2021 revenue guidance
  • Trade Moderna shares, long or short, with an IG account

US biotechnology company Moderna Inc is scheduled to report its fourth quarter and full-year results for the 2020 financial year, before the market opens on Thursday (25 February 2021).

Below are some things for investors to consider ahead of the earnings release.

1. Moderna’s share price is up 30% year-to-date

Moderna’s shares are up some 29.6% so far this year, all thanks to the approval and roll-out of its Covid-19 vaccine, mRNA-1273, across North America, Europe and parts of Asia-Pacific and the Middle East.

Prior to mRNA-1273, Moderna had never introduced an approved drug to the market.

In the last one year, the US drug developer’s share price has skyrocketed over 450%, as vaccine news and higher revenue expectations kept driving stock prices upwards.

Moderna shares hit a peak price of US$186 on 08 February 2021. Share price has fallen roughly 22.2% since then, after the company said it was facing shipment delays for the vaccine.

Nevertheless, the company is still expecting to deliver 100 million doses by the end of Q1 2021.

2. Analysts forecast adjusted loss of US$0.22 against US$0.31 in 2019

Wall Street brokers polled by Refinitiv are expecting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to hit a loss of US$0.22, as against an adjusted loss per share of US$0.31 recorded in the same quarter in fiscal 2019.

For the full year, analysts are forecasting an adjusted loss per share of US$1.32, up from an actualised loss per share of US$1.55 in FY2019.

Sales in the fourth quarter of FY2021 are also expected to grow a massive 2,170% year-over-year, which will surpass any quarterly growth figures in the last few years. The consensus Q4 revenue estimate stands at US$279.4 million.

For the full year, analysts have given a consensus estimate of US$534.9 million, up over 800% from 2019’s reported sales of US$60.2 million. The final revenue figure was lower than Wall Street estimates of US$75.4 million.

Analysts will also be paying close attention to Moderna’s Q1 2021 revenue and profit guidance, being that the market has been extremely optimistic about the company’s financial results with vaccine deployments now in full swing.

3. Moderna posted 830% revenue increase in Q3

Moderna posted a total revenue of US$157.9 million in the third quarter of 2020 for the three months ended 30 September 2020, an increase of 830% from the US$17 million recorded for the same period in 2019.

Total revenue was US$232.7 million for the nine months ended 30 September 2020 compared to US$46.2 million for the same period in 2019.

Total revenue increased for both the three month and nine month periods in 2020, thanks to increases in grant revenue, primarily due to the company’s Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) agreement related to its mRNA-1273 vaccine candidate development.

However, Q3 2020 net loss came in at US$233.6 million, an increase from US$123.2 million for the same period in 2019. The company had attributed this to higher research and development as well as general and administrative expenses in relation to mRNA-1273’s development.

How to trade Moderna stocks with IG

Are you feeling bullish or bearish on Moderna’s stocks?

Either way you can buy (long) or sell (short) the asset using derivatives like CFDs offered on IG's industry-leading trading platform, or by investing in the share directly, in a few easy steps:

  1. Create a live or demo IG Trading Account, or log in to your existing account
  2. Enter <Moderna Inc> in the search bar and select the instrument
  3. Choose your position size
  4. Click on ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ in the deal ticket
  5. Confirm the trade

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

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