Macro Intelligence
In this week’s edition of IG Macro Intelligence, we examine the recent sell-off in precious metals and its impact on ASX-listed stocks.
Gold prices have started February on the back foot after experiencing their biggest one-day plunge in over a decade at the end of January.
The unwinding of gold and, subsequently, silver prices came after a dramatic surge that had seen precious metals hit all-time highs.
Investors had been rushing into gold and silver due to fears of geopolitical instability, currency debasement, and threats to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence, with speculative buying from China further fuelling the move.
A decision by United States (US) President Trump to nominate Kevin Warsh as the incoming Fed chair prompted investors to retreat from safe-haven trades on the last trading day of January.
So, should investors take profits in gold stocks or double down amid the downturn?
Ord Minnett's David Lane remains bullish on a few gold players:
Shares have surged more than 75% over the past 12 months and remain in a bullish trend, according to technical data. Specifically, the five-day moving average (MA) of the stock is above the 20 and 50-day MAs.
However, UBS has downgraded the stock to 'neutral' from 'buy', albeit with a higher target price of $5.20, up from $4.20, as the global strategy team updates its near-term gold price to US$5200 as a sustainable target for the remainder of 2026, before an eventual 'tapering.'
The near 30% decline in silver also put Australian-listed silver miners under pressure at the start of February.
However, a surge in demand for silver recently prompted Global X exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to launch a second product to meet appetite for the metal.
The Silver Miners ETF (SLVM) allows Australian investors to access a global portfolio of companies involved in the exploration, mining, and production of silver, benchmarked against the Solactive Global Silver Miners Net Total Return Index.
Chris Judd from Cerutty Macro Fund believes silver has not lost its appeal as an investment. Judd also favours Viridis Minerals and Mining, seeking diverse commodity chain exposure rather than crowding trades.
Viridis Mining and Minerals appears to be in a strong bullish trend confirmed by multiple indicators. Specifically, the five-day MA of the stock price is above the 20 and 50-day MAs. Additionally, a long-term bullish signal is offered by the 200-day MA, which is trending higher.
Analysts seem equally positive on the stock, with the average recommendation a 'buy' according to Refinitiv, and a target price of $3.68, suggesting a 113% gain.
The general consensus seems to be that the pullback in precious metals was a correction after a parabolic rally.
Deutsche Bank is sticking with its US$6000 target price for gold, drawing contrasts from the recent pullback with weakness seen in the safe-haven asset in the 1980s and, more recently, 2013.
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