Gold’s Lazarus rally: bullion reclaims $4700 as Middle East tensions thaw

Gold rebounds as de‑escalation signals drive improving market sentiment

After signing off on its worst month since October 2008 – a brutal stretch that saw the precious metal finish 11.57% lower – gold has extended its Lazarus‑like recovery, climbing back above the $4700 level earlier in today’s session. At an intraday high of $4723, bullion has rebounded an impressive $625, or 15.2%, from the $4098 low struck just nine days ago.

This rebound has gathered momentum as rising hopes of de‑escalation in the Iran conflict improve the broader macro backdrop. A softer US dollar, falling treasury yields and declining energy prices have combined to provide a supportive tailwind for the yellow metal.

President Trump’s latest comments on ending the conflict appear to be his most definitive yet. He noted the US would be leaving Iran ‘very soon’, with the White House flagging an ‘important announcement’ scheduled for Wednesday at 9.00pm EDT (Thursday at 12.00 AEDT).

As outlined in yesterday’s crude oil update here, these de‑escalation signals arrive as President Trump faces falling approval ratings, linked directly to US retail petrol prices pushing above $4 a gallon – a challenging political backdrop ahead of the November midterms.

The administration now appears to face a binary choice: attempt to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz, risking US servicemen’s lives and significant damage to global energy infrastructure, or pursue a rapid resolution. The latter would leave the current regime in place, limit infrastructure damage and potentially allow oil prices to stabilise or fall if Iran reopens the Strait once US forces withdraw.

As a side note, while a swift exit would likely be framed as a victory domestically and welcomed by financial markets, it remains unclear how US allies in the Gulf – who would be left highly exposed – would respond to what could be viewed as a tactical retreat.

Safe‑haven demand fades as rate cut hopes return

Returning to gold, an end to the conflict could prove a double‑edged sword. On one hand, a lasting peace agreement would remove the geopolitical safe‑haven bid that supported prices in the lead‑up to the conflict.

On the other hand, lower oil prices and easing inflation pressures would likely revive expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts later in 2026. When combined with ongoing structural demand from central banks, which continue to accumulate gold for diversification, the longer‑term upside case remains intact.

Given these competing cross‑currents – the loss of an immediate safe‑haven premium offset by renewed rate‑cut expectations and persistent central bank buying – prices are more likely to grind higher rather than stage a rapid rally from here.

Gold technical analysis

After maintaining a bearish stance on gold through much of March – a view reinforced by its decisive break below $5000 – we shifted to a bullish bias early last week. This change followed gold’s successful test and rebound from our key $4200 – $4100 support zone.

Provided gold continues to hold above this critical support band at $4130 – $4100, we expect prices to grind higher, initially targeting a move back towards the $5000 level. A decisive break above $5000 would then open the door to a potential retest of the $5602 record high.

Gold daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 1 April 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}