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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD try to recover

​​Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD.

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​​​EUR/USD dips to one-month low but tries to recover

EUR/USD's retest of the $1.0736 to $1.0766 resistance zone, up of the mid- to late December highs and mid-January low, failed at $1.0804 on Tuesday with the cross heading back down towards its current February low at $1.0656 despite hawkish comments by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, mentioning a further 50 basis point (bp) rate hike being in the pipeline.

​Below $1.0656 await the early-December high at $1.0595 and the $1.0574 mid-December low which will remain in focus while this week’s high at $1.0804 caps on a daily chart closing basis.

​Minor resistance below $1.0804 is seen between the early-December high and the mid-January low at $1.0736 to $1.0766.

EUR/USD chart Source:
EUR/USD chart Source:

​EUR/GBP rallies on slowing UK inflation after seven consecutive days of losses

EUR/GBP's seven-day slide from its early-February high at £0.8978 has taken it to Tuesday’s low at £0.8804 before it rallied all the way back to its £0.8897 January peak on weaker-than-expected UK inflation data.

​Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) fell to 10.1% year-on-year (YoY) in January, below expectations of 10.3% and 10.5% in December and by 0.6% month-on-month (MoM), the sharpest monthly decline since January 2019. Core inflation slid to 5.8%, below expectations of 6.2% YoY and 6.3% in the previous month.

​A rise above the £0.8897 January peak and Wednesday’s high at £0.8902 may lead to the £0.8915 6 February low being revisited, above which towers the early-February high at £0.8978. Slips should find support between the £0.8877 late-December high and the 25 January £0.8852 high. ​Further support can be spotted at last week’s low at £0.8824 and this week’s low at £0.8804.

EUR/GBP chart Source:
EUR/GBP chart Source:

​AUD/USD drops on highest unemployment rate in eight months

AUD/USD first tumbled to its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.6875 as Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.7% in January versus an expected 3.5% as was the case for its December near five-decade low. The cross then recovered, though.

​For now, AUD/USD has managed to hold above its early-February low at $0.6956, a fall through which would lead to the 200-day SMA at $0.6807 being eyed. Minor resistance can be spotted at the $0.6983 late-January low.

​Provided that this week’s high at $0.7029 caps, further downside is likely to be seen. If this level were to be exceeded on a daily chart closing basis, the mid-January high at $0.7063 would be back in sight, a rise above which would mean the continuation of the currency pair’s medium-term uptrend.

AUD/USD chart Source:
AUD/USD chart Source:

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