BHP HY 2026 earnings preview

When will BHP report its latest earnings?

BHP Group's is set to deliver its half-year (HY) results for the period ending 31 December 2025 on Tuesday, 17 February 2026, at 8.00am AEDT.

Company backdrop

BHP’s last full-year results for financial year (FY) 2025, ending June 2025, painted a challenging picture, reflecting a significant dip in profits. Underlying attributable profit tumbled 26% year-over-year (YoY), shrinking from US$13.66 billion in FY 2024 to US$10.2 billion. This decline was primarily due to lower iron ore and coal prices, and higher operating costs. Consequently, dividends were cut to US$1.10 per share (down from US$1.46), and net debt saw an increase.

Investors grappled with a more cautious outlook, particularly concerning iron ore, even as the long-term prospects for copper and potash remained bright. Despite these headwinds, BHP’s share price rose modestly, gaining 1.57% to $42.12 after the report’s release.

CEO Mike Henry quote

Highlights from the previous quarter

Fast forward to the recent second quarter (Q2) of FY 2026 operational update, covering the December 2025 quarter and released on 20 January. The narrative shows a mix of triumphs and tribulations. On one hand, BHP's core operations demonstrated impressive growth:

• Iron ore: The Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) division delivered volumes of 76.3 million tonnes (Mt), comfortably beating expectations. This strong rebound was a direct result of supply-chain normalisation after key infrastructure upgrades, showcasing excellent mine, rail and port performance
• Copper: this segment was a highlight. Total copper production of 490.5 thousand tonnes (kt) topped consensus estimates, driven by standout performances from Escondida and Antamina. Record concentrator throughput at Escondida and higher grades at Antamina were key. BHP formally upgraded its FY 2026 group copper guidance, a clear vote of confidence in its execution
• Costs: in a welcome development, costs for key copper assets like Escondida and Spence are now expected at the lower end of their FY 2026 guidance.

However, the good news was somewhat overshadowed by a persistent issue:

• Jansen Potash Project: The Jansen Stage 1 Potash project capital expenditure (capex) has been reset higher again to US$8.4 billion, approximately $1 billion above prior analyst estimates.

Other areas offered mixed results. Metallurgical coal volumes were largely in line, but production is now expected at the lower end of guidance, with costs at the upper end due to weather and geotechnical challenges. Energy coal, however, provided a pleasant surprise with strong volumes and pricing.

Summary of BHP’s FY 2025 highlights 

HY 2026 earnings expectations

As we look towards the HY results, the market will be examining these details even further. While BHP's strong operational execution in iron ore and copper suggests a solid underlying performance, the increased capex for the Jansen project will loom large.

• Underlying attributable profit: ~$6.2 billion (up from $5.075 billion in the prior corresponding period)
• Dividend: $0.65 (vs $0.50 in the prior corresponding period)

BHP interim underlying attributable profit

Key areas to watch

• Investors will closely scrutinise commentary on commodity pricing, cost inflation (especially with some coal costs trending higher), and any further updates on the Jansen project
• The ongoing negotiations with the China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) over iron ore contracts will also be watched for any impact on realised pricing.

Is BHP a buy or a sell?

BHP currently holds a TipRanks Smart Score of '9 outperform'. However, it is rated a 'hold' overall by analysts, with 4 'buy', 8 'hold' and 1 'sell' as of 10 February 2026.

BHP TipRanks Smart Score

BHP technical analysis

From its April 2025 'Liberation Day' low at $33.35, BHP staged an impressive rally of approximately 57.5%, hitting a fresh record high of $52.54 in early February 2026. This surge was fuelled by resilient commodity demand and a notable sector rotation, as investors shifted from overvalued banks into undervalued materials stocks starting in late June 2025.

The pullback that has developed from the $52.54 high appears corrective, suggesting that once this current correction concludes, the underlying uptrend should resume. This could potentially lead to a retest and eventual break of the $52.54 high. In the interim, shares should find solid support near last week's low of $48.50 and again around $47.50. Resistance is identified at $50.80 - $51.00, stemming from the December 2023 high. A move above here would then target $52.54, with a sustained break opening the way for the rally to extend towards $55.00.

BHP weekly candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of  10 February 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}