Skip to content

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved.

Australian dollar forecast: AUD/USD faces a busy week ahead

Asia-Pacific traders eye another event-packed week ahead; newswires out of China may impact broader market sentiment and AUD/USD attacks 50-day SMA after prices rise from Falling Wedge.

Source: Bloomberg

Monday’s Asia-Pacific outlook

Asia-Pacific traders face a potentially volatile week, with several high-impact events ahead that may shift market sentiment. Equity indexes moved higher across US, European and APAC markets as the US dollar pulled back. The DXY Index fell for a second week, weighed down by an advancing yen, euro and Australian dollar.

The Australian dollar may see more gains this week if risk appetite holds up, although market sentiment has been fragile as traders continuously digest economic data, central bank commentary and other indicators. Later this week, Australia’s second-quarter inflation rate may lift AUD/USD if the data surprises to the upside. The Bloomberg consensus forecast sees a 6.3% year-over-year increase, up from 5.1%.

China’s property sector woes and its broader economic condition will likely continue to play a large part in influencing market sentiment. Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan wrote in a blog post over the weekend that Hong Kong’s financial situation is sound. Mr. Chan’s comments are in response to the large number of capital outflows seen over the last several months, causing some to speculate that the city’s monetary system may soon become illiquid.

Traders face a relatively light economic docket for today, but several potentially high-impact events loom. The United States will see a consumer confidence update and an advance read on second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Those events may cause big shifts in the US dollar, which has broad-ranging potential to disrupt financial markets. Europe is also due for its Q2 GDP print to cross the wires.

Notable events for July 25

  • Thailand – New Car Sales YoY (June)
  • Thailand – Balance of Trade (June)
  • Singapore – Core Inflation Rate YoY (June)
  • Taiwan – Industrial Production YoY (June)

AUD/USD technical outlook

AUD/USD rose to its 50-day Simple Moving Average after prices pierced above wedge resistance. The price target, measured by the wedge’s height, suggests prices may continue rising. The 0.7000 level would help to put the cross back on a solid footing if prices can overtake the 50-day SMA. A pullback to the wedge is another possible outcome.

AUD/USD daily chart

Source: TradingView

This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Start trading forex today

Trade the largest and most volatile financial market in the world.

  • Spreads start at just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
  • Analyse market movements with our essential selection of charts
  • Speculate from a range of platforms, including on mobile

Find out more

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

You might be interested in…

<h3>How much does trading cost?</h3>
<h3>Find out about IG</h3>
<h3>Plan your trading</h3>

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.