Australia 200 afternoon report: 1 May 2025

The Australia 200 trades 12 points (0.15%) higher at 8138 as of 2.15pm AEST.

Six-day rally continues despite commodity slump

The Australia 200 has started a new month on track for a sixth day of gains, albeit on light trading volumes.

The quiet start to May comes despite US Tech 100 equity futures adding 1.4% following solid earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta, after the close of the United States (US) market. The calm on the Australia 200 is hardly surprising given the stomach-churning rollercoaster ride it endured during April.

At yesterday's close, the Australia 200 signed off on the month of April with a 3.61% gain, 957 points or 13.3% above its 7 April 7169.2 low, which does leave it vulnerable to a pullback in the seasonally weak month of May. As a guide, we typically expect to see a pullback of 3-5% in May, which would take the local bourse back towards the lows of March, 7730 area.

Bank of Japan policy decision

In other news the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its short-term interest rate goal at 0.5% as expected. The commentary noted a softer economic and inflation outlook stemming from the uncertainty of US trade policy, which is expected to weigh on growth.

Nonetheless, the BoJ has maintained its underlying stance of raising rates toward neutral in line with its goal of normalising policy. The Japanese rates market is pricing in more than a 50% chance that the BoJ is unable to raise rates again this year.

Chinese manufacturing contraction impacts commodities

Yesterday in China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49 in April from 50.5, the largest decline in two years, reflecting the impact of tariffs. This led to significant overnight declines in key commodities.

• Iron ore declined 1.53% to $96.95
• Copper futures plunged 5.41% to $4.60
• Crude oil slipped 3.56% to $58.28, recording an 18.5% loss in April

Australia 200 stocks

Materials sector

Weak commodity prices pressured major miners.

• BHP declined 1.5% to $37.62
• Rio Tinto fell 1% to $115.97
• Fortescue Metals Group slipped 0.5% to $16.10

Energy sector

Oil price weakness affected energy stocks:

• Woodside Energy dropped 2.4% to $20.24
• Santos decreased 0.75% to $5.96

Banking sector

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia touched a high of $168.28, just below last week's peak, before settling near unchanged at $166.70 (+0.07%)
• National Australia Bank eased 0.66% to $35.88
• Macquarie declined 0.5% to $192.51
• ANZ fell 0.44% to $29.73
• Westpac decreased 0.17% to $32.78

Technology sector

The ASX200 information technology (IT) sector surged 3.83% to its highest level in almost eight weeks.

• WiseTech Global jumped 5.8% to $93.70
• NextDC rose 5.07% to $12.44
• Life360 added 3.5% to $22.71
• Megaport climbed 3.15% to $11.78

International equities sector

Platinum Asset Management surged 11.4% to $0.64 after fund manager L1 Capital acquired a 9.6% stake, sparking merger discussions expected to create significant synergies.

Australia 200 technical analysis

From its mid-February high of 8615, the Australia 200 fell 16.78% to its early April 7169 low, a move viewed as a correction rather than the onset of a new bear market.

After its strong rebound from the April lows, the Australia 200 is expected to spend months setting into a range broadly between 8200 and 7730.

Australia 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 1 May 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}