Are we seeing a thawing in the latest crypto winter?

Bitcoin and Ethereum show resilience amid market turbulence

Bitcoin snapped its eight-day winning streak overnight, closing lower at $73,928 (-1.27%). The pullback followed a push to a six-week high just above $76,000 earlier in the session, with the decline appearing as profit-taking after a good run higher.

What stands out, however, is Bitcoin’s and Ethereum's remarkable resilience despite recent broader market turbulence. This month, alongside the eye-popping performances of key energy products like heating oil (+68.68%), West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil (+44.63%), and gasoline (RBOB) (+38.99%), both Ethereum (+19% month-to-date) and Bitcoin (+12.03% MTD) rank among the top-performing assets.

Despite widespread jitters from the Middle East conflict, Bitcoin has shown clear safe-haven characteristics, even outperforming traditional gold, which is down 5.44% over the same period. This strength ties directly into renewed flows, with investors increasingly treating Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency uncertainty and geopolitical risks, particularly as equities and other risk assets have felt pressure from surging energy costs.

FOMC decision ahead and broader crypto implications

Supporting this narrative, longer-term holders continue to accumulate steadily, while consistent exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows have provided a reliable floor for prices. This has helped offset retail sentiment, which has remained somewhat subdued since last October's flash crash.

Looking ahead, tomorrow's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision is widely expected to deliver a steady hold with an easing bias already largely priced in. However, any hawkish shift in the dot plot – especially if the Federal Reserve (Fed) signals greater concern about oil-driven inflation stickiness – could pressure risk assets, including Bitcoin, in the short term.

On the flip side, if Chair Powell leans dovish and effectively looks through the energy blip, it could see the United States (US) dollar and yields ease further from recent highs and give cryptocurrency more room to extend its rally.

The conflict in the Middle East remains a significant wildcard; any de-escalation would likely lift sentiment across the board, which in turn would be beneficial to Bitcoin, while prolonged disruptions keep that safe-haven bid for Bitcoin very much alive.

Bitcoin technical analysis

Bitcoin's rally from the February low near $60,000 appears to mirror the corrective pattern after the November low at $80,537, which ran up to the mid-January high of $97,939 before breaking lower.

In line with that parallel, we expect the rising trend channel resistance – currently near $77,700 – to cap upside in the coming sessions. This could pave the way for an eventual reversal lower, with a break of trend channel support at $65,000 opening the way for a retest and potential breach of the early February $60,000 support level.

Bitcoin daily candlestick chart