Apple Q2 FY2026 earnings preview: CEO change, China and tariffs

When will Apple report its latest earnings?

Apple reports fiscal second-quarter (Q2) results on Friday, 1 May at 6.00am AEST, after United States (US) market close.

With a landmark chief executive officer (CEO) transition announced this week and key questions outstanding on China growth, tariff exposure and artificial intelligence (AI) monetisation, this call carries unusual strategic weight.

A record quarter to follow: Q1 2026 in review

Apple's first quarter (Q1) for fiscal year (FY) 2026 was its strongest on record across multiple dimensions. Key highlights from the official results release include:

• Record revenue, earnings and cash flow: total revenue of $143.8 billion, earnings per share (EPS) of $2.84, and operating cash flow of $53.9 billion
• iPhone: delivered $85.3 billion in revenue, up 23% year-on-year (YoY), with new records across all five geographic segments and the highest upgrade volumes in the company's history
• Greater China revenue: surged 38% YoY, driven by iPhone demand, with store traffic rising strongly and the installed base reaching an all-time high
• Services: reached a record $30 billion, up 14% YoY, with records across advertising, cloud, music and payments
• Mac revenue: declined 7% YoY to $8.4 billion against a demanding prior-year comparison
• Wearables: dipped 2% due to AirPods Pro 3 supply constraints

MacBook Neo

Q2 consensus points to sustained growth

While replicating Q1's record-breaking performance will be difficult – given the initial iPhone 17 launch tailwind that bolstered that quarter – Q2 is nonetheless expected to deliver broad-based growth. iPhone is forecast to remain the primary revenue driver, accounting for approximately 52% of total revenue, while Services is expected to sustain a growth trajectory broadly in line with Q1. Mac revenue is forecast to be broadly flat YoY, though the March MacBook Neo launch could provide a modest positive surprise.

Gross margin consensus of 48.4% sits at the midpoint of management's guided range, with rising memory chip costs expected to exert some downward pressure.

Analyst estimates based on LSEG data

Source: LSEG

Five key points that will define the call

1. Ternus takes the spotlight

Earlier this week, Apple announced that Tim Cook will transfer the CEO role to John Ternus with effect from 1 September, while Cook assumes the position of executive chairman. With Ternus' background rooted in hardware engineering, the transition signals Apple's conviction that device experience represents its sharpest competitive advantage. Investors are likely to probe the foldable iPhone pipeline and how a product-led strategic lens will shape capital allocation going forward.

2. Can China's momentum hold?

Greater China consensus sits above 30% growth, accounting for close to 20% of total revenue – a second consecutive quarter of sharp recovery. Investors will press management on the sustainability of that growth rate given that launch-quarter demand for iPhone 17 is normalising, and with Huawei having recently launched its premium Pura 90 smartphone series.

3. Tariffs and memory costs

Apple absorbed $1.4 billion in tariff costs in Q1. Since then, the Supreme Court struck down International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs, but new Section 301 investigations into Chinese manufacturing have been initiated, creating uncertainty across Apple's supply chain. Combined with rising memory costs flagged by the chief financial officer (CFO) as a growing headwind, investors will seek clarity on margin trajectory and whether the ongoing shift toward India-based production offers material relief.

4. MacBook Neo supply ceiling

Cook called the launch week as Apple's strongest ever for first-time customers, but the $599 device relies on repurposed A18 Pro chips no longer in mass production, with orders now delayed into May. Investors will want clarity on whether supply can keep pace with demand Apple has created.

5. Apple Intelligence: from features to revenue

Despite entering the generative AI space later than some rivals, Apple has leveraged device-level integration and a Google Gemini partnership to narrow the competitive gap. With a substantially revamped Siri expected later in the year, analysts will push management for a concrete timeline on Apple Intelligence monetisation.

Analyst ratings reveal upside

As of 22 April, Apple's stock carries a Smart Score rating of 9 out of 10 on TipRanks' quantitative framework – a composite score drawn from 10 data sets including news sentiment and hedge fund positioning trends.

Wall Street analyst sentiment is broadly constructive, with 16 'buy' ratings among the 26 analysts covering the stock on TipRanks. The average 12-month share price target of $300.9 implies approximately 10% upside from current levels.

Apple TipRanks insights

Technical analysis: golden cross formation in focus

Apple's share price corrected as much as 15% from its December 2025 peak during the period of market turbulence in March. The stock has since recovered approximately 11%, though it has yet to reclaim its all-time high even as the broader Nasdaq 100 index has set a new record.

The medium-term trend remains constructive, with the shares trading comfortably above key moving averages (MAs). The near-term technical analysis picture is also encouraging, with the formation of a higher-low pattern suggesting underlying demand.

A positive earnings surprise could catalyse a break above the resistance line currently at $274 – the level connecting local peaks since December – opening a path toward a new record above $288. Conversely, a disappointing result would reinforce that resistance and could direct share prices towards the immediate support cluster at the 20-day and 50-day MAs near $260, with the 200-day MA at $253 serving as the next key downside reference.

A potential golden cross formation between the 20-day and 50-day MAs also warrants monitoring, as trend-following inflows could provide an additional tailwind should it materialise.

Apple daily price chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 22 April 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}