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​​Telsa share price Q1 2021 results preview

In this article we look at what to expect and how to trade the upcoming Tesla Q1 2021 results.

When is the Tesla earnings date?

Tesla Inc, the Nasdaq listed, sustainable energy electric vehicle producer will report its first quarter earnings for 2021 (Q1 2021) on Monday the 26 of April 2021.

Tesla results Q1 2021 earnings preview, what to expect?

Tesla results are expected to benefit from the Model 3 and Model Y cars which have allowed the company to successfully compete within the broader mainstream electric vehicle (EV) market as well as grow its footprint within the Chinese EV market.

A recent production update from Tesla has shown at least 182,780 of its Model 3 and Y EV’s to have been delivered in the Q1 of 2021. As a base of comparison, Q1 2020 total vehicle deliveries amounted to 83,400 and Q4 2020 deliveries reached 180,600.

However while growth in sales and deliveries of the Model 3 and Y has been exponential, deliveries of the company’s higher end Model S and Model X EV’s has slowed from 18,920 in Q4 2020 to around 2020 in Q1 2021. The decline in Model S / X sales is largely due to suspended production as the company readies for new models of these vehicles. The lower delivery figures from the high end models is likely to impact the groups operating margins negatively, although group profitability will be supported by the higher volume in its mainstream vehicle sales.

Factset consensus estimates for the Tesla’s Q1 FY21 results arrive at an adjusted earnings per share figure of $0.80 and revenue for the quarter relatively flat at $10.3 billion.

How to trade the Tesla results

A Refinitiv data poll surveying thirty eight analysts maintains a consensus long-term average rating of hold for Tesla (as of the 19 of April 2021), with nine of these analysts recommending a strong buy, six recommending a buy, 12 hold, seven sell and four with a strong sell recommendation on the stock.

The median long-term share price target from these analysts is $648.78. At the time of writing the share price of Tesla trades at $726, a significant premium to the consensus price target.

90% percent of IG clients with open positions on Tesla (as of the 19 of April 2021) expect the share price to rise in the near term, while 10% percent of IG clients with open positions on the company expect the price to fall.

Tesla share price: technical analysis

The long-term price trend for Tesla remains up, as indicated by solid red trend line on the chart below. In the short term the price appears to finding resistance at the 775 level whilst looking overbought.

Long-term trend followers will look to keep a long bias to trades on Tesla, although cautioned by the overbought near resistance signals. A pullback towards trend line support at 600, could provide traders with a renewed long entry opportunity, while a move below the 587 level might instead suggest that the long-term uptrend is breaking down, which would call for a reassessment of the long bias to trade on the company.

Should a pullback from overbought territory not ensue, and instead a break of the resistance level at 775 manifest, the high at 885 would become the initial target from the move.

In summary

  • Tesla Q1 2021 results are set for release on the 26 of April 2021
  • Lower margin Model 3 and Y EV sales were significantly higher for the quarter
  • Higher margin Model S and X sales were significantly lower for the quarter
  • Overall vehicle sales were higher over the period
  • Revenue is expected at around $10.3 billion for the quarter
  • Adjusted EPS is expected at $0.80 (Factset consensus) for the quarter
  • The majority of IG clients with open positions expect the price to rise in the near term
  • Term the long-term price trend for Tesla remains up, although in the short term, the price is overbought at resistance

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

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