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​​Meta stock price claws back 2022’s losses

​​Meta practically regains all of last year’s losses amid improved earnings.

Meta Source: Bloomebrg

​​​Meta stock price claws back 2022’s losses

​2023 has been almost a complete reversal of 2022’s trends for social media giant Meta. Having clawed back most of 2022’s losses, supported by improved earnings and rebounding risk appetite, new record highs now seem a distinct possibility.

​Meta's stock price has shown resilience by recovering most of the decline it experienced in 2022. This is a positive sign for investors who have faith in the company's ability to adapt and thrive in the ever-changing digital landscape.

​One of the key factors contributing to Meta's success is its focus on efficiency. By implementing measures such as reducing its workforce and restructuring teams, the company has been able to streamline its operations and achieve impressive results. For instance, Meta reported $32 billion in sales for the second quarter (Q2) of 2023, which is a testament to its commitment to maximizing productivity.

​Furthermore, Meta's investments in augmented and virtual reality technologies, as well as artificial intelligence, have positioned the company for a promising future. These technologies have the potential to revolutionize various industries and offer new avenues for growth and innovation. By staying at the forefront of these developments, Meta has established a strong narrative for its future business prospects.

​However, it is important to acknowledge the potential risks that Meta faces. A slowdown in user growth could pose challenges for the company, as it heavily relies on user engagement and advertising revenue. Additionally, the possibility of a global recession could impact Meta's performance, although such an event seems unlikely in the near future.

​From a valuation perspective, Meta's current trading multiple of 29 times earnings indicates that the stock is no longer cheap. Nevertheless, there is still potential for further upside, given the company's strong growth prospects and ongoing investments in transformative technologies.

​Analyst ratings for Meta

​Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘buy’ for Meta – 18 strong buy, 34 buy, 5 hold and 2 sell - with the mean of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of $372.40 for the share, roughly 12% higher than its current price (as of 30 November 2023).

Meta Analyst Source: Refinitiv
Meta Analyst Source: Refinitiv

​Technical outlook on the Meta share price

​Meta share price, which has risen 166% year-to-date, even though it remains on its upward trajectory, is beginning to lose upside momentum on the weekly chart.

​Meta Weekly Candlestick Chart

​Meta Weekly Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView
​Meta Weekly Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView

​After four weeks of straight gains and an over 20% rise in the Meta share price to levels last traded in January 2022, the stock is beginning to keel over.

​Since last week’s high at $342.92 has been accompanied by negative divergence on the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), a short-term corrective move lower is likely to soon be witnessed.

​While the August-to-October lows $279.40 to $274.38 hold on a weekly chart closing basis, the medium-term uptrend will technically remain valid, though.

​Nonetheless, Wednesday’s ‘Bearish Engulfing’ pattern on the daily candlestick chart does indicate that at least an interim top is likely to be formed. This short-term bearish scenario is being reinforced by the negative divergence which can also be seen on the daily chart.

​Meta Daily Candlestick Chart

​Meta Daily Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView
​Meta Daily Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView

​The July peak at $326.20 is thus expected to be revisited and perhaps also the $312.87 mid-September high. The area around it may represent a good medium-term reward-to-risk trading setup for those wishing to buy Meta shares with a stop-loss below the $274.38 August trough.

​A rise and daily chart close above last week’s high at $342.92 would put the November 2021 peak at $353.83 on the map.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

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