JD.com Q1 2026 earnings: revenue recovery and food delivery losses in focus

JD.com reports Q1 2026 earnings on 12 May

JD.com will announce its first-quarter (Q1) 2026 results after Hong Kong markets close on Tuesday, 12 May at 7.00pm AEST.

Q4 2025 recap: record active users offset by food delivery losses

JD.com closed the fourth quarter (Q4) 2025 with group revenue up 1.5% year-on-year (YoY) to RMB352.3 billion. JD Retail, the group's core operating segment, posted a 2% YoY revenue decline. Electronics and home appliances contracted 12% against a demanding comparison base from the 2024 government trade-in subsidy programme, with the shortfall only partially offset by 12% general merchandise growth. Nevertheless, JD Retail's full-year operating margin expanded for the sixth consecutive year, reaching 4.6%.

Profitability at the group level, however, came under significant pressure from continued investment in the food delivery segment. Full-year net income attributable to ordinary shareholders fell sharply to RMB19.6 billion from RMB41.4 billion in 2024, while free cash flow contracted to RMB6 billion from RMB44 billion.

The standout positive was user momentum: annual active customers surpassed 700 million, with shopping frequency rising over 40% YoY, underscoring the growing engagement of JD's retail ecosystem.

Q1 2026 financial expectations: recovery from trough, but profit headwinds persist

Analysts expect JD.com's revenue growth to re-accelerate to 3.2% YoY in Q1 2026, recovering from the trough recorded last quarter.

Net income attributable to shareholders is projected to return to positive territory after the net loss of RMB2.7 billion in Q4 2025. On a YoY basis, however, net income is forecast to decline 58.4%, reflecting the continued drag from elevated marketing expenditure - particularly within the food delivery business.

Non-GAAP earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) margin is expected to recover from its recent trough to the highest level since Q1 2025, consistent with management's prior guidance that food delivery investment has peaked.

Source: LSEG

Five questions for JD's management on Q1 2026 earnings call

1. Revenue recovery: Will growth in general merchandise and advertising revenues be sufficient to offset the lingering base effect from electronics and home appliances — a headwind management flagged as likely to persist through the first half of 2026?
2. Food delivery losses: Has investment spending genuinely peaked? The extent of any improvement will be tracked through the new business segment's non-GAAP operating loss, which stood at RMB14.8 billion last quarter.
3. Advertising momentum: Can marketplace and marketing revenues — a high-margin business that grew 18.9% in 2025 — sustain their trajectory, and thereby drive JD Retail's operating margin further towards its high-single-digit target?
4. AI monetisation: JoyAI, JD's in-house large language model (LLM), and Jingyan, its AI shopping agent with 150 million active users, both scaled rapidly in 2025. How is that translating into measurable gross merchandise value (GMV) and incremental revenue?
5. Macro outlook and guidance: With US-China trade uncertainties persisting and cost pressures mounting, how does management assess the trajectory of consumer demand and supply chain costs for the remainder of 2026?

Analyst target prices and technical outlook for JD.com shares

Analyst sentiment has improved in recent months: 95% of the 37 analysts covering [shares:JD-USJD.com] on LSEG now assign a 'buy' or 'strong buy' rating to the American depositary receipt (ADR) shares, up from 89% three months ago. The consensus 12-month price target of $39.48 implies approximately 29.3% upside from the closing price on 11 May 2026.

From a technical perspective, JD's ADR share price has recovered from a local trough set in March following the Q4 2025 earnings release. The price has broken above the descending trend line connecting lower highs since March 2025 and is now testing a critical juncture: the 200-day moving average (MA), which will be a key determinant of the medium-term directional bias. A developing golden crossover between the 20-day MA and the 200-day MA provides an additional constructive signal.

A positive earnings surprise could propel the share price towards the recent high of $32.05. Conversely, a disappointing result may see prices pull back towards the 100-day MA at $28.81.

JD.com ADR daily price chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 11 May 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}