28 October 2025

The Australia 200 trades 31 points (0.34%) lower at 9024 at 2.35pm AEDT. 

Wall Street rally fails to uplift ASX 200

The Australia 200 (ASX 200) has shrugged off a robust Wall Street rally, erasing nearly all of yesterday’s hard-fought 36-point gain, as stock-specific shocks and hawkish commentary from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock weighed heavily on sentiment.

Inflation report raises stakes for RBA decision

Speaking overnight in London, Governor Bullock described the labour market as 'still a little tight' and cautioned against overreacting to a single data point, specifically the recent uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.1%.

On tomorrow's third quarter (Q3) 2025 consumer price index (CPI) release, Bullock warned that a trimmed mean reading of 0.9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) would represent a 'material miss' against the RBA’s August forecast of 0.6% QoQ. This effectively raises the bar for a rate cut next week, with a print of 0.9% or higher likely seeing the RBA keep rates on hold, pending the release of the October labour force report on 13 November.

The dilemma of waiting for the October labour force report is that it might show unemployment rising from 4.5%, increasing the chance of a policy error, specifically around the labour market.

Due to this non-negligible risk, and regardless of whether tomorrow’s inflation report shows inflation materially above the RBA’s forecast, we believe the RBA should cut rates by 25 basis points (bp) in November. This approach would follow the path of least regret, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) did last month.

ASX 200 stocks

Biotech and tech stocks

The influential duo of WiseTech Global and biotechnology giant CSL Limited were banished to their respective 'naughty corners' today in brutal fashion.

• CSL Limited dived 17% to a low of $176.01, before settling 14.85% lower at $180.01, after slashing financial year (FY) 2026 earnings guidance and abandoning plans to demerge its Seqirus vaccine unit.

• WiseTech Global plunged as much as 17.5% to an intraday low of $7013 before inching back to trade 14.23% lower at $293. This followed news that its Sydney headquarters was raided by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) and the Australian Federal Police (AFP). The raid involved alleged share trades by former chief executive officer Richard White and three employees.

Gold stocks

Gold stocks also dipped after bullion dropped 3.21% overnight to $3982, as optimism around a US-China trade deal unwound about $130 of safe-haven and trend-following buying. 

• Resolute Mining dived 12.01% to $1
• Capricorn Metals fell 6.00% to $12.16
• Regis Resources lost 4.15% to $5.89
• Newcrest Mining slipped 4.05% to $118.20.

ASX 200 technical analysis

After a period of consolidation in September and the first half of October, the ASX 200 has hit fresh record highs this month, albeit with higher volatility.

Presuming the ASX 200 remains above a layer of short-term support at 8990 – 8970, allow for the ASX 200 to extend its gains towards the next upside target at 9250, with scope to 9500 into year-end.

ASX 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 28 October 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}