US banks Q1 2026 earnings preview

​​​Q1 to reveal solid earnings growth

​The big six United States (US) banks are poised to report a strong round of earnings for the first quarter (Q1). All are expected to see a rise in earnings, with some likely to see very healthy double-digit increases.  This reflects the resilience of the US economy, which has successfully navigated the challenges of Trump’s tariff drama, as well as the recovery in the global economy following the Covid-19 years and the period of higher inflation. 

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, a key barometer of economic health, was strong in Q1, helping to lift revenues from advisory activity and underwriting fees. Once more, Goldman Sachs was a key beneficiary of this. Trading revenues are also expected to be strong after a quarter that saw gyrations for gold and silver that helped to make up for a quieter period for global stock markets.

​But what comes next? 

The challenge for investors mirrors the situation seen a year ago in 2025. At that time, Q1’s performance was overshadowed by the tariff drama that erupted from early April. Any optimism around Q1’s strength was outweighed by concerns that tariffs would cause global growth to weaken or even contract.

For investors, this all feels eerily familiar. Q1 2026 ended with the US undertaking a war in the Middle East that resulted in huge disruption to global energy supplies. While it began to have an effect in March, the full impact may take months to be seen in full.

US banks will face a tricky task when it comes to earnings. They have reason to be optimistic about the outlook on some fronts, but are aware that inflation may rise and growth may slow from here, hurting key areas such as M&A and lending.

While not completely irrelevant, the importance of Q1 results is therefore diminished. Earnings for the second quarter (Q2) and beyond will depend heavily on whether the US and Iran can reach a sustainable agreement. If not, there is a risk that current forecasts prove overly optimistic.

Bank stock prices already under pressure

US bank stocks ended 2025 on a high, much like the broader US indices. Gains continued into January, but from mid‑month onwards prices came under pressure. War in the Middle East saw stock markets enter a period of sustained losses, the longest stretch in months, although the actual percentage declines were muted when compared with 2025’s tariff drama.

The subsequent ceasefire announcement helped equities recover, though bank share prices remain below their January highs. The key question for investors now is whether those declines have already priced in enough bad news to support a continued recovery through April and beyond. 

JPMorgan technical analysis

As one of the first US banks to report, JPMorgan provides a useful proxy for the whole sector. Its stock hit a record high in the opening days of 2026, but since then the performance has been less encouraging.

A series of higher highs and higher lows was finally broken as it slumped below $300 in January, breaking below the December lows, though the late November lows remained intact.

More ominously, the price rallied into February but ran out of steam around $320 and created a lower high, the first such event since March 2025. A more risk‑off environment then drove the stock price down to $280 by early March, where it found support.

While the price has recovered, moving back above $300, it still risks creating a lower high that might leave the short‑term bearish view intact.

JPMorgan candlestick chart