US equities rise as Rieder emerges as Fed favourite and tech earnings loom

Positive start amid FOMC and Fed talks

United States (US) equity markets kicked off the new week on a positive note as investors positioned themselves for a packed calendar featuring mega-tech earnings, a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and mounting speculation regarding the future of Federal Reserve (Fed) leadership.

FOMC preview: a likely pause amid leadership speculation

The FOMC meeting is widely expected to result in interest rates remaining on hold within the current target range of 3.50% – 3.75%, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a roughly 95% probability of no change. All eyes will turn to Chair Powell’s press conference for fresh commentary on labour market trends, inflation risks, and potential pauses in policy easing, particularly in light of tariff uncertainties and recent solid economic data.

Meanwhile, speculation over Powell’s successor has intensified. Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s global chief investment officer of fixed income, has quickly emerged as a leading contender for the role. Rarely mentioned in this context until a few weeks ago, Rieder has surged to the forefront of prediction markets following recent praise from President Trump, who called him 'very impressive' after a private meeting.

Mega-tech earnings

Beyond the central bank, investors will closely scrutinise earnings reports from four technology giants: Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple.

These results will provide critical insights into the trajectory of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. After losing momentum in the final months of 2025 due to growing scrutiny over return on investment, capital expenditure (capex), and real-world constraints, the market is eager to see if the AI narrative can regain traction in 2026.

Forward guidance will be key, alongside scrutiny of margins and capex projections. Specifically, the market is looking for:

• Microsoft: sustained growth in Azure and AI integration
• Meta: continued advertising recovery and efficiency within Reality Labs
• Tesla: progress on autonomy and energy storage to offset pressure on electric vehicle (EV) sales
• Apple: the impact of new AI features and continued momentum in its services division.

Nasdaq 100 technical analysis

The Nasdaq 100 failed to break to new highs in the first few weeks of 2026, even as both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones did so, leaving signs of divergence among the three key US indices.

This was followed by last Tuesday's break lower, before a swift reversal higher took the Nasdaq 100 back to the underside of the broken trendline.

To fully negate the downside risks stemming from last Tuesday’s gap lower and restore upside conviction, the Nasdaq 100 needs a sustained move above the 25,750 – 25,875ish resistance region, encompassing recent swing highs and the underside of the broken uptrend line. This would then open up a retest of the 26,182-record high before a push to 27,000.

Until then, the door remains open for last Tuesday’s decline to resume towards initial support at 24,600 – 24,500, before a move towards a band of medium-term support at 24,200 – 23,800.

Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart

S&P 500 technical analysis

As noted above, both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones hit fresh record highs in the early days of 2026. The S&P 500's high in mid-January, at 6986, was just 14 points shy of our 7000 target.

This was followed by last Tuesday's break lower, before a swift reversal higher took the S&P 500 back to the underside of the broken trendline.

To fully negate the downside risks stemming from last Tuesday’s gap lower and restore upside conviction, the S&P 500 needs a sustained move above resistance in the 6965 – 6985 region, encompassing recent swing highs and the underside of the broken uptrend line. This would then open up a retest of the 6986-record high before a push to 7200.

Until then, the door remains open for last Tuesday’s decline to resume towards initial support at the 6720 level, before medium-term support at the 6550 area.

S&P 500 daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 27 January 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}