Israel strikes Iran as oil prices surge and markets tumble amid Middle East escalation

Israel strikes Iran as oil prices surge and markets tumble amid Middle East escalation

Israeli strikes on Iran drive oil prices 5.73% higher while equity futures fall 1.3% as geopolitical tensions escalate ahead of nuclear talks. Gold approaches record highs as investors flee to safe havens.

Headlines this morning that suggested an Israeli attack on Iran could occur within days have proved prophetic, with news wires reporting that Israel has struck Iran just days before a sixth round of Iran-US nuclear talks was due to take place on Sunday in Oman.

Oil prices surge over 8% on supply disruption fears

Global oil prices jumped and stocks fell after the Israeli strike on Iran. Benchmarks Brent crude and NYMEX Light Sweet were up by more than 8% after the news emerged.

Traders are concerned that conflict in the energy-rich region will disrupt supplies and mean less oil will be available. WTI crude oil has surged 5.73% to $71.89, while US S&P 500 equity futures have fallen by 1.3% to 5972.

Safe haven demand drives gold and Swiss franc higher

Meanwhile, stocks were down in early Asian trade on Friday as investors moved into so-called safe haven assets like gold and the Swiss franc.

Gold is trading at $3409 (+0.67%) not far from its $3500 record high. The USD index is trading higher at 98.03 (+0.2%) finding some support after hitting a three-year low overnight.

Oil could hit $120 as geopolitical premium returns

JP Morgan warned in a note to clients overnight that an attack on Iran, presumably at levels beyond those seen in April and October last year, could send the price of crude oil to $120, driving US CPI to 5%.

The attack comes in the wake of reports late last month that Israel was considering an assault on Iran, potentially seizing the opportunity presented by the diminished retaliatory capabilities of Iran's proxies in the region (Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza).

Iran's nuclear programme escalates tensions

The case for an attack became more pressing from an Israeli perspective after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported in late May a significant escalation in Iran's uranium enrichment activities, raising concerns about its nuclear programme.

According to the IAEA report, Iran increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity by nearly 50%, reaching 408.6 kg (900.8 lbs) by 17 May, up from 274.8 kg in February. This level is just below the 90% threshold for weapons-grade uranium, and the stockpile is sufficient to produce fuel for approximately ten nuclear weapons if further enriched.

Risk sentiment deteriorates ahead of weekend

This morning's alarming escalation is a blow to risk sentiment and comes at a crucial time after macro and systematic funds have rebuilt long positions and investor sentiment has rebounded to bullish levels. While we await further news and a potential response from Iran, we are likely to see a further deterioration in risk sentiment as traders cut risk-seeking positions ahead of the weekend.

Crude oil technical analysis

While we wait to see what comes next for crude oil, it's worth stepping back to examine why crude oil stalled where it did.

As viewed on the chart below, crude oil's surge higher this morning stalled at the downtrend resistance near $74, originating from the $130.50 high in March 2022, which followed Russia's attack on Ukraine.

If tensions in the Middle East escalate again from here, causing crude oil to break above this downtrend, the next target becomes the $80/81 level, coming from the 200-week moving average (MA) at $79.99 and the $80.77 year-to-date high.

Crude oil daily chart

• Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 13 June 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.