Technical analysis: key levels for gold and crude

Gold is currently consolidating at an absolutely critical support level, while Brent looks set for a strong move lower following the end of its recent revival.

Oil refinery
Source: Bloomberg

Gold consolidates around critical support level

Gold rallied back into the $1229 resistance level overnight, with the market clearly taking a breather following a strong move lower into an absolutely critical area of support. This level is important as a break below $1214 would provide a completed double top formation on the daily chart. As such, we are looking for either a breakdown through that level to provide a renewed bearish signal, or else a rebound from support.

An hourly close above $1229 would point towards some form of retracement at least, with a break through $1255 needed to provide a more medium term bullish view. To the downside, we would need a four-hour close below $1214 to signal the likely beginning of another period of weakness for gold.

Brent breakdown signals impending weakness

Brent followed up its channel breakdown with a move back below $48.56, thus bringing about a renewed bearish outlook. This tallies up with the longer term downtrend that has been in place over recent months.

With that in mind, the current rally is seen as a selling opportunity, where the market is expected to turn lower into a strong selling phase. The more this market rallies, the better it is for entries, as long as we do not see a break back through $50.00. 

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