20 January 2026

The Australia 200 trades 57 points (0.65%) lower at 8816 as of 2.45pm AEDT.

Geopolitical tensions impact ASX performance

The Australia 200 (ASX 200) is set for a second day of falls this week, extending its decline from Friday’s 11-week high of 8915.5.

The decline occurred as regional equity markets eased lower, driven by rising geopolitical tensions following President Trump’s weekend tariff threats against several European nations unless the United States (US) is granted permission to purchase Greenland.

While there are hopes the administration will de-escalate – as it has done with previous tariff announcements – it is clear that securing Greenland remains a core national security priority. Furthermore, the administration evidently views economic coercion via tariffs as potentially the most effective lever to achieve its objectives, following limited progress through diplomatic channels.

Commodity pressures weigh on the market

Today, that theme of economic pressure extended to commodities, with mining giant BHP Group confirming that prolonged negotiations with China’s dominant iron ore buyer, China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), are weighing on realised prices, marketing options, and operational productivity.

In its quarterly production update for the three months to 31 December 2025, BHP reported a realised price of US$84.71 per tonne – up 4% year-on-year (YoY) but significantly discounted to the benchmark because of the dispute, which has included vessel delays and selective product restrictions.

It remains to be seen whether today’s BHP update signals a turning point for the ASX 200 materials sector, which has surged 45% since the start of July 2025.

ASX 200 stocks

Financial sector

During the same period (since 1 July 2025) that the ASX 200 materials sector surged 45%, the broader index has gained about 3.3% and the ASX 200 financial sector has fallen 2.8%. Its underperformance was again on display today:

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia dropped 1.51% to $150.91
• ANZ Group lost 0.94% to $37.01
• National Australia Bank declined by 0.85% to $41.86
• Westpac dipped 0.74% to $38.68.

Gold stocks

Despite gold trading at $4676 and holding onto the lion’s share of yesterday’s safe-haven-driven gains, gold stocks have succumbed to some profit-taking today.

• Resolute Mining fell 2.1% to $1.29
• Regis Resources lost 1.13% to $7.86
• Genesis Minerals dipped 1.06% to $7.49.

Materials sector

• BHP shares fell 1.78% to $47.88, while other major iron ore names followed in sympathy, with iron ore futures in Asia also retreating 0.87% to $103.75.
• Rio Tinto dropped 1.66% to $146.90
• Mineral Resources eased 1% to $59.40
• Fortescue Metals Group declined 0.74% to $22.22.

Technology sector

• Xero added 3.31% to $104.26
• Seek gained 1.85% to $23.11
• Technology One gained 1% to $27.15
• DroneShield is set for a sixth consecutive day of advances, climbing 4.07% to $4.74. Its gains come after it announced last week it had been selected as a Category 2 provider on the Australian Department of Defence's Project LAND 156 Line of Effort 3 Standing Offer Panel for Counter-small Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-sUAS) solutions.

ASX 200 technical analysis

From the 8383 low struck on 21 November, the ASX 200 has rebounded 531 points (6.3%) into Friday’s 8915.5 high – a move that has been in line with our bullish expectations, driven principally by seasonal strength and specifically the strong demand for our resource stocks.

However, following a soft start to this week, the 8915.5 high appears to be gaining in significance. As such, it’s important that the current pullback holds uptrend support at approximately 8750 to keep the uptrend intact and to leave open a retest and break above the 8915.5 high.

A sustained break below the 8750 support area would be a negative development and open the way for a deeper decline, initially towards the 200-day moving average at 8622.

ASX 200 daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 20 January 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}