9 December 2025

The Australia 200 trades 36 points (-0.42%) lower at 8588 as of 3.30pm AEDT.

ASX 200 trades lower as RBA holds rates but signals future tightening

The Australia 200 (ASX 200) has fallen for a second day this week, weighed down by losses on Wall Street and today’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board meeting. The central bank kept rates on hold at 3.60% while indicating that the interest rate path for 2026 is likely to lead to rate hikes.

While acknowledging that inflation has fallen a long way from its 2022 peak, the bank highlighted it has picked up again more recently. Some of this increase is being attributed to temporary factors and, despite some uncertainty about how much signal versus noise is contained in the new monthly consumer price index (CPI) report, the data points to a broader-based rise in inflation.

The RBA also noted that domestic economic activity continues to recover and housing market activity and prices are picking up, aided by earlier interest rate reductions, which are still flowing through the economy. It also said that labour market conditions remain a ‘little tight’ and there is uncertainty about the extent to which monetary policy remains restrictive.

Key data releases ahead of February meeting

While today’s statement isn’t one of a central bank with one hand hovering over the rate hike button, it does suggest the RBA will be paying very close attention to the following data releases ahead of its 3 February 2026 board meeting:

• Labour Force Report for November – Thursday, 11 December 2025
• Westpac Consumer Confidence – Tuesday, 16 December 2025
• November inflation report – Wednesday, 7 January 2026
• Labour Force Report for December – Thursday, 22 January 2026
• December inflation report – Wednesday, 28 January 2026

ASX 200 stocks

Energy sector

The ASX 200 energy sector fell after crude oil dropped 2.23% overnight to $58.80, erasing the bulk of last week’s gains.

• Woodside Energy fell 1.45% to $24.82
• Viva Energy dipped 1.61% to $2.13
• Santos slipped 1.31% to $6.41
• Beach Energy declined by 1.50% to $1.14

Financial sector

• National Australia Bank rose 1% to $41.01
• Australia and New Zealand Banking Group gained 0.21% to $35.14
• Commonwealth Bank of Australia dropped 0.87% to $154.07
• Westpac fell 0.63% to $38.00

Materials sector

The big miners experienced a mixed day despite the price of iron ore futures in Asia falling 1% today to $101.10. 

• Fortescue rose 1.47% to $22.40
• Rio Tinto climbed 0.49% to $137.85
• Mineral Resources fell 2.60% to $50.11
• BHP edged 0.05% lower to $44.45

ASX 200 technical analysis

After reaching an all-time high of 9115 in mid-October, the ASX 200 hit a low of 8383 in late November for a 7.7% pullback, marking its deepest correction since April.

Providing the 8383 low holds, the index is expected to extend its rebound back towards 8830 – 8850 by year-end 2025. A retreat through the 8383 low would negate the bullish bias and open the way for a decline towards 8200.

ASX 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 9 December 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}