A powerful morning rally has the ASX 200 on track for its highest close in weeks, with technology and materials stocks leading gains as defensive sectors lag.
The Australia 200 trades 132 points (+1.54%) higher at 8711 at 3.20pm AEDT.
The ASX 200 is on track for its highest daily close in nearly a month after surging an eye‑popping 224 points (+2.6%) shortly after reopening this morning to a four‑week high of 8804.
The magnitude of the early rally comfortably outpaced the roughly 1.9% gains seen on the S&P 500 while the local market was closed for the four‑day Easter long weekend. Much of the overshoot likely stemmed from short covering, as traders who went home short ahead of the break, either as a tactical trade or as a hedge against worsening Middle East tensions, covered on the open.
At current levels, the ASX 200 is roughly 500 points (5.4%) below its record high of 9202 and about 448 points (5.4%) above its recent low of 8262.
That level feels like fair value heading into what looks like a binary outcome tied to tomorrow’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or face United States (US) strikes on Iranian bridges and power plants, assuming the deadline is not pushed back again. A ceasefire could quickly open the door to a rebound toward the 9200 record high, while any escalation or failure to extend the deadline would likely trigger a swift retest of the recent 8262 low.
Consumer staples have lagged the broader rally as investors rotate out of defensive names into higher‑beta plays.
The heavyweight materials sector has continued its rebound following a sharp 24% fall in March.
The information technology sector has been the strongest performer, riding the coattails of a solid Nasdaq session overnight.
At the 8262 low in late March, the ASX 200 had fallen 940 points, or a neat 10.20%, from the 9202.9 record high struck in late February. The index must reclaim the 200‑day moving average, currently at 8776, on a sustained basis to increase confidence that a medium‑term low is in place at 8262 and that the broader uptrend has resumed. Until then, a retest and potential break of the 8262 low remains possible.
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