US stocks rebound on rate cut hopes as Nasdaq posts worst week since March

Fed signals spark hopes for December rate cut as markets rebound

United States (US) stocks rebounded on Friday, supported by renewed hopes for a rate cut in December following dovish comments from New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams. Despite the rebound, the Nasdaq 100 logged its third consecutive week of declines, falling 3.07%, while the S&P 500 lost 1.95% and the Dow Jones slid 902 points (-1.91%).

Williams stated that he still sees room to lower rates further ‘in the near term’, leading the market-implied probability of a December rate cut to rise from 30% to 70%. Given Williams’ central role on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), some market participants interpret his remarks as reflective of Chair Powell’s sentiment. However, even if this is the case, a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, as five regional Fed presidents (on a 12-person board) have expressed opposition.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the October consumer price index (CPI) will not be published, leaving the Fed with even less data heading into its December meeting. However, some components of the October print will be included with the November report, which will be released on 18 December – after the FOMC meeting.

Tech stocks lead gains but AI valuations face scrutiny

• Alphabet rose 3.3% to $163.30, driven by momentum around its Gemini 3 model and plans for significant data centre investments
• Intel gained 2.62% to $34.50
• Qualcomm lifted 2.32% to $163.30.

However, it was not all smooth sailing in the technology sector, as investors continued to reassess inflated artificial intelligence (AI) valuations:

• Oracle dropped 5.66% to $198.76, making its 40% rally following the OpenAI memorandum of understanding look more questionable by the day
• Broadcom lost 1.91% to $340.20
• Microsoft slipped 1.32% to $472
• NVIDIA finished down 0.97% to $178.88, falling below $180 for the first time in almost two months.

Data calendar and earnings outlook

With the end of the month approaching, the data calendar is relatively light, more so due to the Thanksgiving holiday and with the BLS still playing catch-up after the shutdown. The highlights will include producer price index (PPI), retail sales, core personal consumption expenditures (Core PCE), US consumer confidence data and earnings from companies including Zoom, Dell, HP and Deere & Co.

CB consumer confidence

Date: Wednesday, 26 November at 2.00am AEDT

The Consumer Confidence Index in October edged down 1.0 point to 94.6 (from a revised 95.6 in September), marking a third straight monthly decline and the lowest reading since April 2025.

This ‘sideways’ move reflected mixed signals. The Present Situation Index (current conditions) rose slightly by 1.8 points to 129.3 on marginally improved job market views, but the Expectations Index (short-term outlook) fell 2.9 points to 71.5 – well below the 80 recession warning threshold. Key drags included rising recession fears and the government shutdown amplifying labour market anxieties amid tariff worries.

For November, the expectation is for a modest rebound to around 96.0 – 97.0, driven by post-shutdown relief.

CB consumer confidence chart

Nasdaq 100 technical analysis

There are signs of a possible completed five-wave advance from the April 16,542 low to the late October 26,182 high. Under our preferred Elliott Wave framework, once a five-wave advance is complete, the expectation is for a correction to commence.

Last week, the Nasdaq 100 closed below our short-term bullish reassessment level of 25,000. From here, a sustained break below a band of medium-term support at 24,200 – 24,000 would increase the chances that the Nasdaq 100 put in place a medium-term top in late October at 26,182 and that a deeper 15% pullback is underway. A potential head and shoulders topping pattern can also now be observed.

Potential downside targets are the lows of August and early September 23,000 – 22,600 area, which are being reinforced by the 200-day moving average at 22,320.

While the Nasdaq 100 remains above medium-term support at 24,200 – 24,000, a rebound to new highs is possible – though increasingly unlikely.

Nasdaq 100 daily chart

S&P 500 technical analysis

There are signs of a possible completed five-wave advance from the April 4835 low to the late October 6920 high. Under our preferred Elliott Wave framework, once a five-wave advance is complete, the expectation is for a correction to commence.

We are watching for a sustained break of horizontal support at 6650 – 6620 to increase confidence that the recent 6920 high is a medium-term top and the long-awaited 10% pullback is underway.

The initial downside target on a confirmed pullback is the 6360 – 6340 support band (coming from the 2 September and 20 August lows), with downside risks to 6200 – 6160.

While the S&P 500 remains above short-term support at 6550 – 6520, allow for the uptrend to continue towards the next upside target of 7000.

S&P 500 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 24 November 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}