ASX travel stocks rally on Flight Centre profit upgrade 

Lift-off for leisure

Analysts are increasingly bullish on the outlook for ASX travel stocks following positive trading updates from Flight Centre and Virgin Australia.

Flight Centre says rising corporate demand and a rebound in US travel will drive solid profit growth after last year’s slump tied to Middle East instability and concerns over United States (US) tourism. Chief executive Graham Turner has forecast underlying pre-tax profit of $305 million to $340 million this year, up 5.5% to 17.6%.

Meanwhile, recently re-listed airline Virgin Australia has projected strong demand and revenue growth for financial year (FY) 2026, with $800 million in planned capital expenditure and domestic capacity expansion.

The optimism comes as non-listed travel and technology company Luxury Escapes launches its second physical Australian store in Sydney’s Bondi Junction precinct, aiming to capitalise on consumers’ appetite for travel.

Co-founder and chief executive Adam Schwab told ausbiz the average basket size for their bricks-and-mortar stores is $10,000, around five times what consumers spend online.

Clear skies ahead

Flight Centre (ASX:FLT)

Jefferies recently raised its target price on Flight Centre by almost 4% to $14 a share. Macquarie analysts are the most bullish on the stock, with a $16.85 target price, suggesting shares could rise almost 30% from current levels.

Flight Centre daily candlestick chart

It would be a sharp turnaround for Flight Centre, which has fallen close to 25% over the past 12 months and around 20% in the five years since the Covid-19 pandemic.

ASX Tradewatch data show shares in a strong near-term rally within a longer-term bearish trend. Specifically, the 200-day moving average is sloping downward, implying limited demand for the stock. 

Flight Centre historical trends and price targets

But analysts remain positive, with the average broker recommendation a 'buy' according to Refinitiv, and a $15.50 mean target price, suggesting 19% upside.

Flight Centre buy/sell indicators and analyst projections

Helloworld Travel (ASX:HLO)

Shares in Helloworld Travel have dropped around 12% over the past 12 months but currently appear to be in a near-term uptrend as confirmed by multiple indicators.

Helloworld Travel daily candlestick chart

Shaw and Partners is positive on the stock, with a 'buy' rating albeit with a high risk warning. Its target price of $2.75 is among the highest and suggests the stock could rally a further 55%.

Helloworld buy/sell indicators and analyst projections

The average broker recommendation is a 'buy' with a $2.60 target price, suggesting upside of around 46%.

Helloworld Travel historical trends and price targets

Webjet (ASX:WEB)

Webjet has fared better, down just 4% over the past 12 months, and sentiment among investors appears to be improving.

Webjet daily candlestick chart

Morgan Stanley is underweight on the stock while Macquarie has an 'outperform' rating and $6.98 target price.

Webjet buy/sell indicators and analyst projections

The average broker recommendation is a buy with a $6.08 target price according to Refinitiv, suggesting upside of around 45%.

Webjet historical trends and price targets

Boarding wars

Virgin Australia (ASX:VGN)

Shares in Virgin Australia have hit some mild turbulence since re-listing earlier this year, however analysts are upbeat about its outlook.

Virgin Australia daily candlestick chart

Morningstar analysts say Virgin has taken a modest share of the domestic market from Qantas in the first quarter (Q1) and has increased its FY2026 earnings forecast for the airline by 12% to $745 million.

Virgin Australia historical trends and price targets

The investment firm also increased its target price to $2.90 from $2.80, which is at the lower end of analyst estimates. UBS has a 'buy' rating on the stock and $4.20 share price, seeing Virgin’s update as potentially a relief moment for investors post the Qantas annual general meeting (AGM) the prior week.

Virgin Australia buy/sell indicators and analyst projections

Boarding wars

Qantas (ASX:QAN)

The average broker call on the stock is a 'buy' with a $3.83 price target, suggesting 21% upside.

Qantas daily candlestick chart

Qantas shares have risen around 8% over the past 12 months but are currently in a downtrend, with the 5-day moving average beneath the 50-day moving average. Nearer-term, the 20-day moving average is falling, signalling limited near-term momentum.

Qantas historical trends and price targets

Morgans suggests holding the stock, however most brokers are more positive. Morgan Stanley’s $13.40 target price suggests near 40% upside.

More broadly, analysts surveyed by Refinitiv suggest buying the stock with a $12.20 price target, suggesting Qantas can soar another 25%.

Qantas buy/sell indicators and analyst projections