ASX 200 falls to five-week low as RBA holds cash rate at 3.60%

The Australia 200 trades 86 points (-0.98%) lower at 8809 at 3.30pm AEDT.

ASX 200 hits five-week low ahead of RBA meeting

The Australia 200 (ASX 200) dived 92 points (1.03%) to an almost five-week low of 8802.40 today, with most of the falls coming ahead of this afternoon’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board meeting where, as expected, the RBA kept its official cash rate on hold at 3.60%.

The RBA noted that while inflation has fallen substantially since its 2022 peak, it has picked up recently, prompting it to revise higher its forecast for trimmed mean inflation to 3.2% (from 2.6%) during the first half of 2026.

Cash rate path offers hope for mortgage holders

The bank also revised up its growth and unemployment forecasts. Offering a glimmer of hope to mortgage holders, the RBA’s updated cash rate path assumes the cash rate falls to 3.30% in the second half of next year. While this is above its 2.9% forecast from August, it leaves the door open to further easing if warranted.

ASX 200 stocks

Consumer discretionary sector

• Super Retail Group slipped 3.04% to $15.78
• JB Hi-Fi fell 2.20% to $101.20
• Premier Investments dropped 1.89% to $17.65.

Financial sector

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia fell 0.63% to $174.43
• Australia and New Zealand Banking Group lost 0.30% to $36.85
• National Australia Bank dropped 0.18% to $43.93
• Westpac extended its gains post its full-year earnings report yesterday, gaining 1.09% to $40.45.

Materials sector

Leading the index lower, the big miners fell as the price of iron ore in Asia slipped 1.4% to US$103.60, prompting profit taking. 

• Fortescue fell 2.73% to $20.84
• Rio Tinto lost 2.42% to $129.62
• BHP slipped 1.53% to $42.70.

Real estate sector

• REA Group dropped 1.76% to $211.64
• Charter Hall fell 1.63% to $21.98
• Goodman lost 1.58% to $33.42
• GPT slid 1.03% to $5.26.

ASX 200 technical analysis

Following its break of short-term support at 8990 - 8970 early last week, the ASX 200 has today broken below the critical 8850 - 8840 support zone.

This has created technical damage to the uptrend and opens the way for a deeper pullback, initially into the 8730 - 8630 support region, coming from the lows of July and August. Below here, the next level of support is at 8630, coming from the high of early June and the low of early August.

ASX 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 4 November 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}