Australia 200 afternoon report: 24 July 2025

The Australia 200 trades 30 points (-0.35%) lower at 8707 as of 2.40pm AEST.

ASX 200 drops as RBA cools rate cut hopes 

After an early 22-point gain to a high of 8759.9, the Australia 200 (ASX 200) slipped into negative territory as it digested Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock’s speech at the Annika Foundation lunch in Sydney titled 'The RBA’s Dual Mandate – Inflation and Employment.'

Since taking over from Philip Lowe as RBA Governor in September 2023, Bullock has enjoyed a strong start to her tenure. However, the RBA’s decision to keep interest rates on hold earlier this month received widespread criticism after it caught the market and analysts off guard, who had been expecting a rate cut.

The situation was further exacerbated by the Australian unemployment rate surging to a 44-month high just a week later.

Inflation concerns and interest rate expectations

Nevertheless, the RBA Governor has elected to look through the recent criticism and, in her speech, downplayed the rise in employment, saying it wasn’t a surprise. She also noted that monthly inflation data suggests the inflation rate may not fall as fast as forecast in May.

The Australian interest rate market had started the day almost fully priced for a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut from the RBA on 12 of August, with a cumulative 66 bp of RBA rate cuts priced by year-end. While pricing for the August meeting remained unchanged (24 bp out of 25 bp), the RBA Governor’s cautious tone resulted in about 5 bp of RBA rate cuts being priced out of the market before year-end.

US tech earnings 

Both Tesla and Alphabet released their second quarter (Q2) 2025 earnings shortly after the United States (US) market closed this morning.

• Tesla’s share price fell 4.44% in after-hours trading to $317.80, weighed down by an earnings per share (EPS) miss ($0.40 vs $0.42 expected) and a 16% decline in automotive revenue
• Alphabet rose 1.72% in after-hours trading to $194.80 after reporting a top and bottom-line beat.

Australia 200 stocks

Banking sector

• Macquarie Group shares plunged 5% to $214.02 following its first-quarter (Q1) trading update, which showed net profit for the three months to 30 June was down on the prior corresponding period. Long-standing Macquarie Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Alex Harvey also announced he would step down from the role and the Macquarie Executive Committee
• Australia and New Zealand Banking Group dropped 0.85% to $30.31
• Commonwealth Bank of Australia declined 0.41% to $172.60
• Westpac Banking Corporation rose 0.05% to $33.13
• National Australia Bank added 0.80% to $37.50

Healthcare sector

The month of July is shaping up to be a memorable one for the Australia 200 health care sector. It is currently up 8.18% for the month and on track for its best month since November 2023.

• Ansell gained 1.43% to $31.15
• CSL Limited increased 1.25% to $268.82, continuing its rebound from support levels tested in June
• Sonic Healthcare lifted 1.16% to $28.29
• ResMed rose 0.46% to $41.11

Mining sector

• Fortescue Metals Group jumped 4.12% to $18.95 after reporting 55.2 million tonnes of iron ore shipments, beating expectations of 54.1 million tonnes. Fortescue’s share price has surged an impressive 24.05% this month, on track for its best monthly performance since November 2022
• Mineral Resources surged 5.22% to $32.26
• Rio Tinto added 0.69% to $120.29
• BHP Group traded flat at $41.85

Technology sector

The mixed performance of the two mega tech stocks translated into a mixed day for local information technology stocks. 

• Zip Co gained 3.09% to $3.09
• Megaport added 1.59% to $14.67
• DroneShield declined 4.47% to $3.42
• Computershare fell 3.03% to $40.33.

Australia 200 technical analysis

After last Wednesday’s sell-off in the Australia 200 held above our 8530 - 8510 support zone, the index regrouped and springboarded to fresh record highs into the end of last week.

Provided the Australia 200 holds above short-term support at 8620 - 8600ish coming from previous record highs, we expect the index to continue its consolidation before extending its gains towards 8850.

Be aware that a daily close below 8600 is an initial warning that last week’s break higher was a false break and that a retest of the late June 8420 low is underway.

Australia 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 24 July 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}