ASX 200 stabilises as energy and copper stocks rally

The Australia 200 trades 4 points (0.05%) higher at 8769 as of 2.00pm AEST.

ASX 200 stabilises after recent volatility

The Australia 200 (ASX 200) found calmer waters today, stabilising after diving more than 100 points in yesterday’s session, before a 20-point bounce into the close eased some of the earlier losses.

Yesterday’s sell-off was helped along by a hotter-than-expected monthly inflation report prompted traders to reevaluate expectations of multiple Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate cuts remaining in this cycle, with many now expecting just one final rate cut before an extended hold.

Upcoming economic data to guide RBA decisions

Whether that final rate cut occurs before year-end, as expected, or is delayed until next year will likely depend on a labour force update in mid-October and the crucial third quarter (Q3) inflation report scheduled for release on 29 October.

Reflecting this uncertainty, pricing for the RBA’s November meeting, which started the week about 70% priced for a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut, has now fallen to just 11 bp of cuts, representing a 40% probability.

ASX 200 stocks

Consumer discretionary sector

The repricing of RBA rate cut expectations was also felt in consumer-facing and real estate stocks.

• Myer Holdings dropped 3.2% to $0.45
• Bega Cheese declined 1.4% to $5.26
• Temple & Webster lost 1.37% to $23.32
• Coles slipped 0.66% to $23.34.

Copper stocks

Copper stocks soared after mining giant Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure on contracted supplies from its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the second-largest copper mine in the world, sending copper prices surging higher. Force majeure gives producers the right to miss supply obligations due to unforeseen events.

The move followed the tragic 8 September mud rush accident at the mine, which killed two workers and left five others missing.

• Capstone Copper surged 9.72% to $12.36
• Sandfire Resources rose 7.29% to $13.61
• BHP Group gained 3.23% to $41.54
• Rio Tinto added 3.16% to $121.30.

Energy stocks

Energy stocks rallied after West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil finished higher overnight at $64.81 (+1.82%), supported by an unexpected decline in United States (US) inventories and another successful Ukrainian strike on Russian oil infrastructure overnight.

• Beach Energy rose 2.81% to $1.18
• Woodside Petroleum increased 2.56% to $23.45
• Ampol Limited gained 1.95% to $30.38.

Financial sector

In response, the interest rate-sensitive ASX 200 financial sector extended its declines.

• Macquarie Group dipped 1% to $216.21
• Commonwealth Bank of Australia fell 0.46% to $163.79, on track for its lowest close in nearly five months
• National Australia Bank lost 0.27% to $42.98
• Westpac Banking Corporation, which was hammered 3.24% lower yesterday, bounced 0.67% today to $37.83.

Real estate

• Centuria Capital fell 1.33% to $2.22
• Charter Hall dropped 1.14% to $22.50
• Goodman Group declined 0.89% to $33.25.

ASX 200 technical analysis

The heavy fall in the ASX 200 at the start of this month followed by the past three weeks of consolidation has helped the ASX 200 work off overbought readings after its run of new highs in August.

If the ASX 200 remains below last week’s 8888 high, a sustained break of support at 8730 to 8720 would indicate that the next lower leg of the correction is underway, towards the 8600 to 8580 target area.

If this correction plays out as anticipated, it will account for a 5% pullback from the 9054.5 record high, at which point fresh long positions should be considered.

ASX 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 25 September 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}