Can Alibaba leverage stimulus measures to boost its June quarter results?

When is Alibaba reporting? 

Alibaba is expected to report its June quarter 2025 earnings before the United States (US) market opens on Friday, 29 August 2025.

Company backdrop

Alibaba is a Chinese multinational conglomerate specialising in e-commerce, retail, internet, and technology. It operates online marketplaces such as Alibaba.com and Tmall, offering business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C) services, respectively. Additionally, Alibaba provides cloud computing services through Alibaba Cloud, digital payment solutions via Alipay, and engages in logistics, media, and entertainment.

Alibaba’s March quarter results, released in mid-May, missed expectations at both the top and bottom lines, resulting in its share price falling 7.6% the next session. The earnings miss came as concerns over the US and China trade war created uncertainty and weighed on consumer confidence and spending.

Key financials

Earnings expectations

• Revenue: RMB 253.496 billion (approximately $32.584 billion)
• Non-generally accepted accounting principles (non-GAAP) diluted earnings per American Depository Share (ADS): RMB 15.08 (approximately $2.08)

March quarter highlights

• Revenues: RMB 253.496 billion ($32.584 billion), an increase of 7% year-over-year (YoY)
• Net income: RMB 12.382 billion ($1.706 billion), attributable to ordinary shareholders
• Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS: RMB 12.52 ($1.73), an increase of 23% YoY

Eddie Wu, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Alibaba Group, said, 'Our results this quarter and for the full fiscal year demonstrate the ongoing effectiveness of our "user first, AI-driven" strategy, with core business growth continuing to accelerate. Driven by strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI), Cloud Intelligence Group quarterly revenue growth accelerated to 18%, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for the seventh consecutive quarter. Customer management revenue at Taobao and Tmall Group grew 12% this quarter, reflecting the sustained impact of investments in user experience and effective monetisation. Looking ahead, we will remain focused on our core businesses and continue to drive AI plus Cloud as a new engine for our long-term growth.'

Alibaba March quarter 2025 results

What to watch for

Since Alibaba’s March quarter update, significant developments have occurred that could influence its upcoming June quarter earnings. 

US-China trade truce

The most notable is the trade truce with the US, agreed upon in mid-May, which temporarily suspended and reduced tariffs between the two nations for a 90-day period.

The truce reduced US tariffs on Chinese imports from an average of 127.2% to approximately 51.8% and Chinese tariffs on US imports from 147.6% to 32.6%, potentially boosting export-related revenues.

Stimulus measures

Additionally, Chinese authorities have rolled out increased stimulus measures aimed at combating economic deflation and spurring consumer spending. These measures could benefit Alibaba's core Taobao and Tmall platforms.

International digital commerce segment

The performance of the international digital commerce segment will indicate whether the trade truce is delivering tangible benefits or if lingering US-China tensions, especially with the truce expiring on 12 August 2025, continue to pose risks.

Growth rate of Taobao and Tmall

A significant acceleration beyond the 9% revenue increase seen in the March quarter could signal a successful impact from the stimulus, though competition from rivals like JD.com might cap gains.

Alibaba Cloud’s revenue growth

Alibaba Cloud’s revenue growth will be closely watched amid fierce competition from players like Tencent and DeepSeek, with a focus on whether triple-digit AI-related product growth persists.

Management’s guidance

Investor sentiment will hinge on management’s guidance, particularly regarding how Alibaba plans to leverage AI and cloud as growth engines amidst macroeconomic volatility, as well as any updates on free cash flow, which dropped 76% in the March quarter due to cloud infrastructure investments, and potential indications of cost management or reinvestment strategies.

Alibaba technical analysis

Alibaba’s share price plunged over 80% from its high of $319.32 in November 2020 to a low of $58.01 in October 2022.

Since that point, it has traded within a bearish flag/trend channel which currently holds resistance at $150 and support at $75.

A better-than-expected earnings report may see a push towards the top of the flag at about $150 where profit-taking is likely to emerge.

Conversely, in the event of earnings disappointment, a dip is likely to find support in the $80 to $75 range coming from the year-to-date low and trend channel support.

The relative strength index (RSI) at $52.69, as shown on the chart, indicates neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting room for movement in either direction.

Alibaba daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 5 August 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}