AUD/USD stabilises as dovish Fed speak pushes December cut odds to 80%

US dollar strength drives AUD/USD lower amid global risk aversion

AUD/USD finished lower last week at 0.6455, down 1.22%. The decline came against a backdrop of broad-based US dollar, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) hitting its highest level since late May.

The big dollar’s rally was fuelled by a combination of risk-aversion flows, disappointing economic data out of Europe and the United Kingdom, and a sharp sell-off in the Japanese yen ahead of the sizeable fiscal stimulus package formally approved on Friday. Reinforcing the move, several regional Federal Reserve (Fed) presidents sounded hawkish, expressing concerns about additional rate cuts due to lingering inflation risks.

Dovish tone emerges ahead of December meeting

However, that hawkish tilt began to reverse on Friday when New York Fed President John Williams indicated he still saw scope to lower rates further ‘in the near term’. The dovish message gained further traction overnight when Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that the recent softening in the labour market made a December rate cut quite plausible.

The probability of a 25 basis point (bp) cut at the 10 December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has surged from around 30% in the middle of last week to approximately 80% now. This rapid repricing of Fed expectations has provided immediate support to AUD/USD and other risk-sensitive assets, allowing the pair to stabilise into the Friday close and extend a modest recovery into the early part of this week.

Key drivers ahead

Whether a stronger bounce can follow will depend on several key drivers:

1. It is crucial that risk sentiment remains stable.
2. Month-end rebalancing flows are expected to support the Australian dollar due to the Australian stock market’s underperformance this month.
3. The market will be influenced by upcoming US data releases tonight, including the producer price index (PPI), retail sales and consumer confidence, followed by an inflation update in Australia tomorrow previewed below.
4. Tomorrow’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate meeting. While a 25 bp rate cut is widely expected, a larger 50 bp cut cannot be ruled out, which would weigh heavily on NZD/USD and, to a lesser extent, AUD/USD.

October inflation

Date: Wednesday, 26 November at 11.30am AEDT

Australia is transitioning from a quarterly to a full monthly consumer price index (CPI) as its primary measure of headline inflation – a change that will start this Wednesday. This alignment with other Group of Twenty (G20) countries will facilitate easier comparisons of inflation trends with other advanced economies.

There is ongoing debate about whether the new monthly data should be compared with the previous quarterly figures or the last monthly CPI indicator, and it will take time before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) can fully rely on the monthly CPI for a complete and accurate assessment of inflation pressures compared to the more consistent quarterly data.

Although neither option provides a perfect comparison, we have opted to go with the recently released third quarter (Q3) numbers for clarity. In Q3 2025, headline CPI rose 1.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), bringing the annual rate to 3.2% year-on-year (YoY), up from 2.1% previously. The trimmed mean increased 1.0% QoQ, lifting its annual rate to 3.0% YoY from 2.7%, marking the first increase since December 2022.

Following this, expectations are for a monthly increase of 3.6% over the year and for a reading of 2.9% for the trimmed mean. The Australian interest rate market starts the day pricing in 2 bp of easing for the RBA’s December meeting, with roughly 13 bp of cuts anticipated by May 2026.

 All groups CPI and trimmed mean chart

AUD/USD technical analysis

After reaching a high of 0.6617 at the end of October, AUD/USD last week fell to a three-month low of 0.6415. That low found solid support in the 0.6440 – 0.6420 zone, an area that has repeatedly held as a floor since early August.

If the pair remains above the 0.6440 – 0.6420 support band, a recovery remains the base-case scenario. But more evidence is required to increase conviction in this view.

Specifically, AUD/USD needs to get a firm hold on the 200-day moving average, currently near 0.6460, and then clear the 0.6475 – 0.6485 region, which would see it return to the safety of its seven-month uptrend channel.

This would open the door for a rebound toward 0.6520 in the first instance, with stronger resistance not expected until the 0.6620 – 0.6630 area.

Conversely, a sustained break and daily or weekly close below 0.6440 – 0.6415 would invalidate the near-term bullish structure and signal a deeper correction, with the next major downside target around 0.6300.

AUD/USD daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 25 November 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}