Can Tesla earnings still move the market like they used to?

Anticipation builds ahead of earnings report

Tesla is set to report its second quarter (Q2) 2025 earnings on Thursday, 24 July 2025 at 6.05am (AEST) after the United States (US) market closes. The announcement comes at a pivotal time for the electric vehicle (EV) maker, with investors closely watching for signs of stability following a challenging start to the year.

Market attention is focused not only on Tesla’s headline figures - such as revenue, earnings and margins - but also on how the company is navigating ongoing competitive pressures, geopolitical uncertainty and reputational risks tied to chief executive officer (CEO) Elon Musk’s political involvement. With sentiment fragile and the share price underperforming, this earnings release could serve as a key turning point.

Key financials  

Expectations for Q2

• Revenue:  $22.8 billion
• Revenue growth: year-on-year (YoY) 
• Ajusted earnings per share (EPS):  $0.43
• Automative gross margin: 16.44%
• Deliveries: 384,122

Comparison to previous quarter 

• Revenue:  $19.34 billion 
• EPS: $0.27
• Automative gross margin: 16.3%

Post-earnings performance analysis 

Immediate reactions (one day) 

The market’s response on the day following earnings is often swift and substantial. For example, in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2022 and first quarter (Q1) 2024, Tesla’s share price surged more than 10% in a single trading session. These sharp increases often follow strong earnings beats, improved gross margins, or optimistic production guidance.

In contrast, Tesla’s share price declined by more than 7% after Q1 2023 and Q4 2023 results. These losses suggest disappointment with revenue growth, vehicle delivery figures, or margin compression.

Short-term adjustments (one week) 

During the first week following earnings, Tesla’s share price typically continues in the direction of its initial reaction, though the move can broaden or correct. This period reflects deeper interpretation of results, analyst revisions, and market reassessments.

After Q4 2022, for instance, Tesla’s price rose further, building on its one-day jump. However, in Q2 2023 and the third quarter (Q3) 2023, the stock continued to decline, indicating growing investor concerns about cost pressures, competitive threats, or slowing demand in global electric vehicle markets.

Medium-term trends (one month) 

Tesla posted its strongest one-month gain after Q4 2022, rising nearly 40%. This performance likely stemmed from renewed confidence in its long-term growth strategy, including advances in battery technology and production scale. On the other hand, after Q2 2023 and Q4 2024, Tesla shares fell more than 25%, driven by doubts around margins, competition, or demand sustainability.

Overall patterns 

Tesla’s earnings reactions are amplified across all time frames. Positive quarters often see momentum build, while weak results lead to compounding losses. This volatility reflects Tesla’s growth profile and sensitivity to expectations.

Implications for investors 

Short-term traders may capitalise on sharp movements, though risk is elevated. Long-term investors should focus on key fundamentals such as delivery growth, profitability, and cash flow. The one-month trend often offers a clearer signal of sustained market sentiment.

Tesla post-earnings performance chart