Treasury Wine Estates

(AI video summary)

This video was created on 16 October 2025 for IG audiences by ausbiz.

ASX code: TWE

Treasury Wine Estates faces earnings challenges

Treasury Wine Estates is currently holding its annual general meeting (AGM). The company reported that shipments to China and the United States (US) were negatively affected by depletion trends and distribution challenges. As a result, it will no longer uphold its previous guidance of low to mid double-digit earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) growth for its Chinese export of Penfolds and has withdrawn projections for modest earnings growth in its Treasury Americas segment due to ongoing distributor negotiations.

Market conditions and consumer trends

International tariffs have long impacted Treasury Wine Estates, and sales in China continue to lag expectations. The company's dependence on the Chinese market raises long-term growth issues.

Despite these hurdles, the share price has risen by 3% today. Analysts caution that this rise might be temporary due to external factors impacting performance. Treasury's struggles during the Covid-19 era and post-pandemic recovery remain concerns.

Investment outloook

An ongoing decline in wine interest among younger consumers, coupled with wine preservation innovations, further reduces frequent purchases. Analysts suggest caution with this stock. With a low return on equity, currently under 10% and a history of missing investment filters, Treasury Wine Estates is generally viewed unfavorably.