Nike Q4 2025 earnings preview: can strategy shifts offset margin and revenue pain?

When is Nike reporting? 

​Nike is set to report its fiscal fourth-quarter (Q4) 2025 earnings on Friday 27 June at 6.15am AEST, after market close.

Company backdrop

Nike faces a complex landscape marked by shifting consumer preferences, intensified competition, and macroeconomic pressures.

The timing of these results comes at a critical juncture for Nike as it attempts to navigate multiple headwinds while implementing significant strategic changes under Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elliott Hill's leadership.

The upcoming earnings report will provide critical insights into whether Nike's strategic initiatives are beginning to gain traction or if the company faces more persistent fundamental challenges in its core markets.​

​Q4 2025 earnings expectations

Revenue decline expected to exceed analyst projections

Nike has guided for a mid-teens percentage decline in Q4 revenue, suggesting a drop of approximately 13%-15%, in line with analysts' expectations of an 14.93% decrease to $10.72 billion.

The magnitude of the expected revenue decline suggests that Nike's challenges may be more severe than initially anticipated, indicating weakness across both its direct-to-consumer and wholesale distribution channels.

The decline in Nike Direct sales is particularly concerning as this channel has historically provided higher margins and better customer data, making it central to the company's long-term digital transformation strategy.

Weakness in the Wholesale segment suggests that retail partners are also experiencing reduced demand for Nike products, indicating that the challenges extend beyond the company's own direct sales operations.

Highlights from the previous quarter

What to watch for

​Margin pressure from tariffs and competitive dynamics

Nike also anticipates a significant contraction in gross margins, estimating a decline of 400 to 500 basis points (bp), influenced by increased tariffs on imports from China and Mexico.

This significant margin compression reflects the dual impact of higher input costs from tariffs and competitive pressures that limit Nike's ability to pass these cost increases to consumers through price rises.

The tariff impact highlights Nike's continued reliance on Asian manufacturing, making the company vulnerable to trade policy changes that can quickly erode profitability even when demand remains stable.

The extent of margin pressure suggests that Nike may need to absorb significant cost increases rather than risk further demand destruction through price rises in an already challenging consumer environment.

​'Win Now' strategy targets product revitalisation

Under CEO Elliott Hill, Nike is executing its 'Win Now' strategy, focusing on revitalising its product lineup and strengthening its presence in key markets. This includes reducing reliance on classic styles like Air Force 1s and Dunks, which have seen heavy discounting, and emphasising innovation in performance-oriented products.

This strategic shift represents a significant departure from Nike's recent approach, which had relied heavily on retro and lifestyle products that commanded premium pricing but may have become oversaturated in the market.

The move toward performance-oriented innovation aligns with Nike's historical strengths in athletic technology and could help differentiate the brand from competitors that focus primarily on fashion and lifestyle positioning.

However, the success of this strategy will depend on Nike's ability to deliver compelling new products that resonate with consumers and justify premium pricing in a competitive marketplace.

​Competitive landscape intensifies pressure

​Nike faces intensified competition from rivals including Adidas, which has been gaining market share in key categories, and newer entrants like On Running and Hoka that have captured consumer attention with innovative products.

The competitive pressure is particularly acute in the lifestyle and casual segments where Nike has traditionally commanded premium pricing, with consumers showing increased willingness to experiment with alternative brands.

This competitive dynamic forces Nike to balance investment in innovation with price competitiveness, creating additional challenges for maintaining margins while funding the research and development (R&D) necessary for product differentiation.

Nike's ​stock performance reflects investor concerns

​Nike's stock has declined by around 19% year-to-date, reflecting investor concerns over the company's near-term performance and strategic direction.

​The significant decline in share price suggests that investors have lost confidence in Nike's ability to navigate current challenges and return to sustainable growth, creating pressure on management to demonstrate progress.

This valuation pressure may create opportunities for investors who believe Nike's strategic shifts will eventually prove successful, though timing remains uncertain given the multiple headwinds facing the company.

Analysts emphasise the importance of forthcoming earnings guidance and the market's reception to Nike's new product offerings in determining the stock's trajectory.

Nike has a TipRanks Smart Score of '4 Neutral' but is rated as a 'buy' with 13 'buy' and 12 'hold' recommendations (as of 25 June 2025).

Nike TipRanks Smart Score chart

​According to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) Data & Analytics, 6 analysts have a ‘strong buy’ recommendation for Nike, 13 a ‘buy’, 20 a ‘hold’ and 2 a ‘sell’ with a long-term mean price target at $71.14, 16% above the current share price (as of 25/06/2025).

Nike LSEG Data & Analytics chart

​Nike technical analysis

​The Nike share price has been sideways trading since the 12 May and is currently bouncing off its lower boundary and Monday’s $59.19 low. While this level holds on a daily chart closing basis, a retest of the February to June downtrend line at $62.97 may be on the cards.

If this line and the $64.85 current June three-month high are exceeded, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $71.96 may be reached.

However, a fall through and daily chart close below Monday's $59.19 low may lead to a revisit of the April low at $52.28.

​Nike daily chart