The trade: markets pause as US–China trade deal cools tensions

(AI video summary)

This video was created on 11 June for IG audiences by ausbiz.

Australia 200 stalls near record high

Australia 200 (ASX 200) touched a fresh record high this week, supported by improved sentiment following renewed dialogue between the United States (US) and China. However, price action now suggests a potential false break is forming.

Momentum has faded, with a double top developing near the February high of 8615. Equity futures in the US have softened, and without a new catalyst, further upside for Australia 200 may be limited. A daily close below 8615 would confirm a short-term reversal risk and increase the likelihood of a pullback.

US Tech 100 rally looks stretched

US Tech 100 (Nasdaq 100) has reversed post-Liberation Day losses and is approaching February’s high. Elliott Wave analysis suggests a Wave IV pullback is near.

Support is at the 200-day moving average (MA) around 20,500. This could offer a re-entry point, though a break below would signal a deeper correction.

Impact of US-China trade negotiations on currencies and commodities

AUD/USD remains range-bound

Australian dollar/US dollar (AUD/USD) continues to consolidate between 0.6350 and 0.6550, failing to break higher despite extended trade agreements. The deal’s limited detail and favourable terms for the US point to near-term US dollar (USD) strength. AUD/USD may retreat toward 0.6450, where support could offer a better entry point.

USD/JPY setup ahead of CPI print

US dollar/Japanese yen (USD/JPY) is holding near 140 ahead of US inflation data. If the consumer price index (CPI) beats the 2.9% core forecast, rising yields could lift USD/JPY toward 147 – 148.

Bitcoin bounces from key level

Bitcoin has rebounded from last week’s $100,000 low, suggesting the recent correction from $112,000 may be complete. With political tensions easing, Bitcoin is poised to test $115,000 – $120,000, provided it holds above the 200-day MA near $95,000.

Crude oil retests breakout zone

Crude oil broke above its five-week range ($55 – $65) but is now retesting the top of that zone. If support holds at $64 – $65, the price could push towards $68.50 and $70. The trade deal lowers downside risks for Chinese growth, supporting crude oil demand.

Spot gold short-term trend softens

Spot gold still looks bullish in the medium term, but easing trade tensions are trimming safe haven demand. Support sits between $3290 and $3300. A drop below $3280 could trigger a deeper pullback in the short term.