AUD/USD rises on strong AU GDP and weak US jobs: focus on confidence and inflation reports

Strong Australian GDP supports AUD/USD gains

AUD/USD finished higher last week at 0.6556 (+0.27%), marking its second consecutive week of gains during an eventful week that included a six-week high on Friday at 0.6588.

Last week's gains were bolstered by a better-than-expected Australian second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report. This showed the annual rate of growth in the Australian economy rising to 1.8% year-over-year (YoY) from 1.3% – the fastest rate since the third quarter (Q3) of 2023.

The stronger growth data dashed faint hopes for a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate cut in September. However, to ensure the Australian economy's rebound gains further traction, a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut from the RBA in November remains highly likely.

Weak US jobs data benefits AUD/USD

AUD/USD also benefited from last week’s trifecta of soft United States (US) labour market data, which weighed on the US dollar. This included Friday night's non-farm payrolls report, which showed a gain of just 22,000 jobs in August, well below the upwardly revised 79,000 in July and market forecasts of 75,000.

Looking ahead, AUD/USD’s near-term direction will likely depend on risk sentiment, this week’s Australian consumer and business confidence reports, and inflation updates in the US and China.

Westpac consumer confidence

Date: Tuesday, 9 September at 10.30am AEST

For August, the Westpac consumer confidence index rose 5.7% to 98.5 points, its highest level since February 2022. This increase was supported by RBA rate cuts, rising wages, and easing cost-of-living pressures that buoyed household sentiment.

Notably, the strong jump brought the index to just 1.5 points below the critical 100 threshold, where optimists equal pessimists – a level not seen since March 2022.

The survey period for the September reading occurred last week and included the release of second-quarter (Q2) Australian GDP data, which showed the fastest annual growth rate since Q3 2023. This, along with widespread speculation of a 25 bp rate cut at the RBA’s meeting in November, coupled with optimism from easing inflation and positive global cues, is expected to see the consumer confidence index rise in September to 99.5.

Westpac consumer confidence chart

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD has spent the past four and a half months trading sideways to higher within an upward sloping flag pattern and trend channel, consolidating and extending its rebound from the April low of 0.5912. The consolidation over the past two months has occurred above the 200-day moving average (MA), currently at 0.6388.

Looking ahead, while AUD/USD remains within its upward sloping flag, allow for a further continuation of the ‘two steps forward, one step back’ trading pattern observed over the past four months as it grinds its way to 0.6700.

Be aware that if AUD/USD were to see a sustained break of trend channel support at 0.6460 - 0.6450, then below the August double low at approximately 0.6415, and finally below the 200-day MA at 0.6388, it would indicate AUD/USD has broken lower, with scope back to 0.6200.

AUD/USD daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 8 September 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}